4024 Mchenry Ave #63

Modesto, CA 96536

$145,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 2020 · Manufactured · Active · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,963/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$242
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $549/mo
• Annual: $6,584/yr
• Cap rate: 10.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.22%
• DSCR: 1.72
• 1% rule: 1.35%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $549 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $143k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#451 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D+, health & safety D+.
• Sylvan Union Elementary (urban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #457 of 1,400 in CA (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 3.2% in Modesto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Cluttered countertops and cabinets — Clutter detracts from the home's appeal and functionality.
• Moderate: Dated bathrooms — Dated fixtures and tile reduce the home's value and appeal.
• Moderate: Exterior work in progress — Incomplete exterior work may indicate ongoing issues or delays.
• Minor: Cluttered interior — Clutter detracts from the home's appeal and functionality.
• Moderate: Dated flooring — Dated flooring reduces the home's value and appeal.
• Minor: Average interior walls — Average condition walls may indicate a need for touch-up or minor repairs.