4024 Mchenry Ave #63 · Modesto, CA 96536

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured · 25 Days on market

Built 2020 Fair condition 12 ac lot Est $101k · 44% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

WALKING DISTANCE TO SHOPPING CENTERS AND A THEATER. ALL APPLIANCES INCLUDED IN THE SALE: REFRIGATOR, STOVE, MICROWAVE, DRYER AND WASHER. BUILT IN 2020.

Key facts

• 11.7 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 2020

Tags

• WALKING DISTANCE TO THEATER
• ALL APPLIANCES INCLUDED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community; Land lease: no (listed land lease amount present but property marked No)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking
• Utilities: 220V in kitchen electrical; Public sewer; Public water
• Home design: Manufactured in park; Single wide; Built in 2020
• Construction: Metal and other roof types; Manufactured home by Champions Home Builders Inc.
• Exterior features: Private lot; Irregular-shaped lot; Other lot features

Interior

• Kitchen: No specific kitchen features listed
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Dining and family area combined; Living room with unspecified/other features
• Laundry & utility: Electric laundry hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $549 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $143k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 3.2% in Modesto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#451 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D+, health & safety D+.
• Sylvan Union Elementary (urban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #457 of 1,400 in CA (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,825 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.22%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $100,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4024 Mchenry Ave #26	0.00mi	3/2.0	940 (-2%)	2mo	$90,000	$96	95
4024 Mchenry Ave #141	0.00mi	3/1.5	860 (-10%)	2mo	$75,900	$88	79
4024 Mchenry #95	0.11mi	3/2.0	886 (-8%)	6mo	$120,000	$135	77
4125 McHenry Ave #93	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	940 (-2%)	2mo	$56,000	$60	77
4024 Mchenry Ave #29	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	893 (-7%)	11mo	$120,000	$134	69
4024 Mchenry Ave #115	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,038 (+8%)	22mo	$170,000	$164	63
70 Clipper Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	16mo	$120,000	$114	61
4024 Mchenry Ave #134	0.10mi	3/2.0	860 (-10%)	21mo	$128,000	$149	60
4125 Mchenry Ave #134	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (+15%)	2mo	$115,000	$105	56
78 Clipper Ln	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	840 (-12%)	16mo	$80,900	$96	54
4125 Mchenry Ave #30	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (+12%)	15mo	$70,000	$65	52
4024 Mchenry Ave #143	0.11mi	2/1.0 (-1)	826 (-14%)	14mo	$59,900	$73	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $52,444
• Equity at exit: $65,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.39×
• Total profit: $137,783
• Equity at exit: $100,478

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96536

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,963 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$181 /mo · $2,175/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $549

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,268

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $649	-5% $599	+0% $549	+5% $499	+10% $449
Rent	-10% $394	-5% $471	+0% $549	+5% $626	+10% $704
Rate	-1.0pp $622	-0.5pp $586	base $549	+0.5pp $511	+1.0pp $473

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
204 Warren Way Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,825	$2.52	15d	4	0.43mi
3904 Monteview Dr Unit 1 Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,995	$1.81	22d	1	0.92mi
1305 Sylvan Meadows Dr Unit C Modesto, CA	2.0	1.5	1037	$2,150	$2.07	15d	1	0.99mi
3701 Colonial Dr #154 Modesto, CA	2.0	1.5	978	$1,950	$1.99	15d	1	1.03mi
3104 Sherwood Ave Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	820	$2,071	$2.53	15d	10	1.04mi
3445 Colonial Dr Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	918	$2,295	$2.50	15d	10	1.12mi
3400 Coffee Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	951	$1,945	$2.05	22d	1	1.14mi
2700 Macdougal St #12 Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	858	$1,625	$1.89	22d	1	1.20mi
3401 Tully Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	1024	$2,095	$2.05	15d	2	1.32mi
200 Sheila Ct Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	841	$1,725	$2.05	15d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $145,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $145,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $145,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $145,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,556
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,175
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,884
• − Management: −$1,884
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $4,547
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,091
• After-tax cash flow: $5,493/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires moderate renovations, including decluttering, updating bathrooms, and completing exterior work, to improve its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Cluttered countertops and cabinets — Clutter detracts from the home's appeal and functionality.
• Moderate Dated bathrooms — Dated fixtures and tile reduce the home's value and appeal.
• Moderate Exterior work in progress — Incomplete exterior work may indicate ongoing issues or delays.
• Minor Cluttered interior — Clutter detracts from the home's appeal and functionality.
• Moderate Dated flooring — Dated flooring reduces the home's value and appeal.
• Minor Average interior walls — Average condition walls may indicate a need for touch-up or minor repairs.
• Unknown HVAC/mechanicals — No visible signs of HVAC/mechanical issues in the provided photos.
• Moderate Landscaping — Incomplete landscaping may indicate ongoing issues or delays.
• Unknown Foundation/structure — No visible signs of foundation/structure issues in the provided photos.
• Unknown Windows — No visible signs of window issues in the provided photos.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Declutter and organize countertops and cabinets — Decluttering enhances the home's appeal and functionality, benefiting both resale and rental.
• Both Update bathrooms with new fixtures and tile — Updating bathrooms with new fixtures and tile enhances the home's appeal and functionality, benefiting both resale and rental.
• Both Complete exterior work — Completing exterior work enhances the home's curb appeal and functionality, benefiting both resale and rental.
• Both Replace dated flooring — Replacing dated flooring enhances the home's appeal and functionality, benefiting both resale and rental.
• Both Touch-up or repair average interior walls — Touching up or repairing average interior walls enhances the home's appeal and functionality, benefiting both resale and rental.
• Both Install new HVAC/mechanicals — Installing new HVAC/mechanicals enhances the home's comfort and functionality, benefiting both resale and rental.
• Both Complete landscaping — Completing landscaping enhances the home's curb appeal and functionality, benefiting both resale and rental.
• Both Repair foundation/structure — Repairing foundation/structure ensures the home's structural integrity, benefiting both resale and rental.
• Both Repair windows — Repairing windows ensures the home's structural integrity and enhances its curb appeal, benefiting both resale and rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Cluttered countertops and cabinets · Clutter detracts from the home's appeal and functionality.	Minor	$500–3,000
Dated bathrooms · Dated fixtures and tile reduce the home's value and appeal.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Exterior work in progress · Incomplete exterior work may indicate ongoing issues or delays.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Cluttered interior · Clutter detracts from the home's appeal and functionality.	Minor	$500–3,000
Dated flooring · Dated flooring reduces the home's value and appeal.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Average interior walls · Average condition walls may indicate a need for touch-up or minor repairs.	Minor	$500–3,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No visible signs of HVAC/mechanical issues in the provided photos.	Unknown	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Incomplete landscaping may indicate ongoing issues or delays.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Foundation/structure · No visible signs of foundation/structure issues in the provided photos.	Unknown	$500–3,000
Windows · No visible signs of window issues in the provided photos.	Unknown	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 10 items		$15,000–78,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Declutter and organize countertops and cabinets — Decluttering enhances the home's appeal and functionality, benefiting both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Update bathrooms with new fixtures and tile — Updating bathrooms with new fixtures and tile enhances the home's appeal and functionality, benefiting both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Complete exterior work — Completing exterior work enhances the home's curb appeal and functionality, benefiting both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Replace dated flooring — Replacing dated flooring enhances the home's appeal and functionality, benefiting both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Touch-up or repair average interior walls — Touching up or repairing average interior walls enhances the home's appeal and functionality, benefiting both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Install new HVAC/mechanicals — Installing new HVAC/mechanicals enhances the home's comfort and functionality, benefiting both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Complete landscaping — Completing landscaping enhances the home's curb appeal and functionality, benefiting both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Repair foundation/structure — Repairing foundation/structure ensures the home's structural integrity, benefiting both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Repair windows — Repairing windows ensures the home's structural integrity and enhances its curb appeal, benefiting both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sylvan Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0638670
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $61,181
• Composite: 44.28/100
• National rank: #6167
• State rank: #457 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Modesto

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #15229

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute D Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Modesto, CA

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B