2688 Pine Ridge Way N Unit D2

Palm Harbor, FL 34684

$169,500D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,038 sqft · Built 1983 · Condo · Active · 80 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,012/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$889
• Tax + insurance: −$301
• HOA: −$421
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $-21/mo
• Annual: $-253/yr
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.53%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 1.19%
• Cash to close: $47,460

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21 ($-253/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $166k (2.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $159k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#95 in FL, #1,470 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, commute A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Highland Lakes Elementary School (math 67% / reading 65%, grade B+, #492 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 529 students, 44% FRL); Joseph L. Carwise Middle School (math 66% / reading 57%, grade B+, #124 of 571 statewide, top 22%, 1,098 students, 38% FRL); Palm Harbor University High (math 54% / reading 72%, grade B-, #89 of 667 statewide, top 14%, 2,474 students, 26% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 51% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Pinellas average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 378 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $170k implies a 229% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.1% in Palm Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?