20100 N 78th Pl #2031

Scottsdale, AZ 85255

$282,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 798 sqft · Built 2001 · Condo · Pending · 99 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,082/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,479
• Tax + insurance: −$209
• HOA: −$374
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-417/mo
• Annual: $-5,008/yr
• Cap rate: 4.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.34%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $78,960

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $282k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-417 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (26.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (26.2% below list).
• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $208k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Grayhawk Elementary School (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B, #104 of 1,109 statewide, top 10%, 358 students, 7% FRL); Mountain Trail Middle School (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #57 of 218 statewide, top 27%, 680 students, 24% FRL); Pinnacle High School (math 49% / reading 54%, grade D+, #35 of 381 statewide, top 9%, 2,479 students, 8% FRL) — zoned schools average 13% FRL vs 29% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 735 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $282k implies a 213% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.5% in Scottsdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($141k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?