20100 N 78th Pl #2031 · Scottsdale, AZ 85255

$282,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 798 sqft · Condo public records · 99 Days on market

Built 2001 $353/sqft · at area comps Est $296k · at est. $374/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your Scottsdale retreat at The Edge at Grayhawk, ideally located just minutes from the Loop 101 for easy access to North Scottsdale, Phoenix, and beyond. This move-in-ready 1-bedroom, 1-bath condo offers second-floor privacy with no neighbors above and includes all appliances for easy living. Residents enjoy a luxury, resort-style lifestyle centered around an impressive clubhouse featuring a great room, concierge services, private fitness center, movie theater, wine storage, and multiple spaces to relax or gather. Unwind by the outdoor fireplace, host friends at the barbecue, or cool off in the heated pool—all in one of North Scottsdale's most sought-after communities.

Key facts

• $374 HOA
• Garage
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $282k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-416 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (26.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (26.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.5% in Scottsdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Grayhawk Elementary School (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B, #104 of 1,109 statewide, top 10%, 358 students, 7% FRL); Mountain Trail Middle School (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #57 of 218 statewide, top 27%, 680 students, 24% FRL); Pinnacle High School (math 49% / reading 54%, grade D+, #35 of 381 statewide, top 9%, 2,479 students, 8% FRL) — zoned schools average 13% FRL vs 29% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 735 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($141k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $282k implies a 213% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,287 (26.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.33%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $296,035
• List price: $282,000
• Delta: -4.74%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.64% appreciation · 4.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $51,977
• Equity at exit: $170,851

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.31×
• Total profit: $182,083
• Equity at exit: $304,431

Cash invested: $78,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85255

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 735
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,083 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,479
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,098/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$374
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-416

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,610

Max offer price $208,439

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-257	-5% $-337	+0% $-416	+5% $-496	+10% $-576
Rent	-10% $-581	-5% $-499	+0% $-416	+5% $-334	+10% $-252
Rate	-1.0pp $-274	-0.5pp $-345	base $-416	+0.5pp $-489	+1.0pp $-564

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,500
• Closing costs: $8,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20100 N 78th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1043	$1,445	$1.38	22d	15	0.11mi
20100 N 78th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1043	$1,500	$1.44	0d	17	0.11mi
20100 N 78th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1202	$3,925	$3.26	45d	5	0.11mi
7340 E Legacy Blvd Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1045	$1,500	$1.43	0d	21	0.61mi
7355 E Thompson Peak Pkwy Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1045	$1,585	$1.52	1d	40	0.65mi
7220 E Mayo Blvd Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	1.0–3.0	1418	$5,358	$3.78	1d	86	1.09mi
18525 N Scottsdale Rd Scottsdale, AZ	1.0	1.0	749	$1,965	$2.62	14d	1	1.20mi
17777 N Scottsdale Rd Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	942	$1,824	$1.94	0d	21	1.33mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $374 · $4,488/yr
• Likely covers: poolgymdoorman
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $282,000 Pending 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $282,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $282,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $282,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $282,000 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $282,000 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-02-27
   listed $282,000 Active 694-char remark

   Show marketing remark (694 chars)

   Welcome to your Scottsdale retreat at The Edge at Grayhawk, ideally located just minutes from the Loop 101 for easy access to North Scottsdale, Phoenix, and beyond. This move-in-ready 1-bedroom, 1-bath condo offers second-floor privacy with no neighbors above and includes all appliances for easy living. Residents enjoy a luxury, resort-style lifestyle centered around an impressive clubhouse featuring a great room, concierge services, private fitness center, movie theater, wine storage, and multiple spaces to relax or gather. Unwind by the outdoor fireplace, host friends at the barbecue, or cool off in the heated pool—all in one of North Scottsdale's most sought-after communities.

8. 2012-01-19
   soldstatus $90,000 Closed 458-char remark

   Show marketing remark (458 chars)

   This beautiful 1 bedroom 1 bath condo features neutral carpet, breakfast bar, laundry room, 9ft ceilings and balcony. Property is located on the second floor. This gated community has some great amenities which include several gorgeous swimming pools, spa, billards, fitness center, video library, picnic and children's play area and much much more! Property is close to freeways, shopping and entertainment. Amazing resort style living! Property sold AS-IS.

9. 2011-11-16
   status Pending 458-char remark

   Show marketing remark (458 chars)

   This beautiful 1 bedroom 1 bath condo features neutral carpet, breakfast bar, laundry room, 9ft ceilings and balcony. Property is located on the second floor. This gated community has some great amenities which include several gorgeous swimming pools, spa, billards, fitness center, video library, picnic and children's play area and much much more! Property is close to freeways, shopping and entertainment. Amazing resort style living! Property sold AS-IS.

10. 2011-10-19
    listed $89,000 Active 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    This beautiful 1 bedroom 1 bath condo features neutral carpet, breakfast bar, laundry room, 9ft ceilings and balcony. Property is located on the second floor. This gated community has some great amenities which include several gorgeous swimming pools, spa, billards, fitness center, video library, picnic and children's play area and much much more! Property is close to freeways, shopping and entertainment. Amazing resort style living! Property sold AS-IS.

11. 2011-05-22
    historical
12. 2010-10-23
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
13. 2010-09-22
    listed $69,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,098 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,861 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: +$763/yr (+$64/mo · 69.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,994
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,796
• − Property taxes: −$1,098
• − Insurance: −$1,410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,000
• − Management: −$2,000
• − HOA: −$4,488
• − Depreciation: −$8,204
• Taxable loss: −$10,001
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,400
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,597/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Scottsdale

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1756

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Scottsdale, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 290,846
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 45,346
• Household income: $140,616
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1034.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.64%
• Current HPI: 330.9931
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.42%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+308.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Listed $282,000 ARMLS
• 2012-01-19 Sold (MLS) $90,000 ARMLS
• 2011-11-16 Pending — ARMLS
• 2011-10-19 Listed $89,000 ARMLS
• 2011-05-22 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2010-10-23 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2010-09-22 Listed $69,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,098 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.