2611 Fir St

Live Oak, CA 95953

$235,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 880 sqft · Built 1923 · SingleFamily · Active · 163 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,759/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $7/mo
• Annual: $82/yr
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.12%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $65,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($82/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (25.2% below list).
• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#197 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, amenities A, commute A; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Live Oak Unified (town): math 39% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #569 of 1,400 in CA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Luther Elementary (784 students, 76% FRL); Live Oak Middle (389 students, 75% FRL); Live Oak High (math 22% / reading 57%, grade F, #532 of 1,170 statewide, top 48%, 595 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools at 73% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 73 units permitted in Sutter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sutter County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $235k implies a 241% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.8% in Live Oak — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.