2611 Fir St · Live Oak, CA 95953

$235,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 880 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 163 Days on market

Built 1923 1,307 sqft lot $267/sqft · 27% below area Est $321k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A charming three-bedroom, one-bathroom home with a cozy and inviting atmosphere. a spacious living room that offers plenty of room to relax or entertain. The floor plan is efficient and easy to navigate, with comfortably sized bedrooms. The home features a small, fenced backyard that provides a sense of privacy—perfect for pets, light gardening, or enjoying a peaceful outdoor moment. Overall, it’s a neat, low-maintenance home with a warm and welcoming feel.

Key facts

• Fenced backyard
• Spacious living room
• 1,307 sq ft lot

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($82/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (25.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.8% in Live Oak — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#197 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, amenities A, commute A; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Live Oak Unified (town): math 39% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #569 of 1,400 in CA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 73 units permitted in Sutter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sutter County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $235k implies a 241% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,855 (25.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.12%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $320,575
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: -26.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2909 Date St	0.33mi	2/1.0	832 (-6%)	2mo	$267,000	$321	74
2799 Peach St	0.34mi	2/1.0	973 (+11%)	10mo	$270,000	$277	58
10288 O St	0.44mi	2/2.0	939 (+7%)	14mo	$320,000	$341	53
9550 Q St	0.42mi	2/1.0	775 (-12%)	12mo	$303,500	$392	50
9535 Samuel St	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	990 (+12%)	17mo	$325,000	$328	38
10192 Luther Rd	0.71mi	2/1.0	792 (-10%)	20mo	$215,000	$271	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-37,769
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-32,827
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95953

• Home prices YoY: -18.6%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,759 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $626/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,750

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $140	-5% $73	+0% $7	+5% $-60	+10% $-126
Rent	-10% $-132	-5% $-63	+0% $7	+5% $76	+10% $146
Rate	-1.0pp $125	-0.5pp $67	base $7	+0.5pp $-54	+1.0pp $-116

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $235,000 Active 163 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $235,000 Active 162 DOM
3. 2026-03-01
   price $235,000 473-char remark

   Show marketing remark (473 chars)

   A charming three-bedroom, one-bathroom home with a cozy and inviting atmosphere. a spacious living room that offers plenty of room to relax or entertain. The floor plan is efficient and easy to navigate, with comfortably sized bedrooms. The home features a small, fenced backyard that provides a sense of privacy—perfect for pets, light gardening, or enjoying a peaceful outdoor moment. Overall, it’s a neat, low-maintenance home with a warm and welcoming feel.

4. 2026-02-01
   price $244,500 473-char remark

   Show marketing remark (473 chars)

   A charming three-bedroom, one-bathroom home with a cozy and inviting atmosphere. a spacious living room that offers plenty of room to relax or entertain. The floor plan is efficient and easy to navigate, with comfortably sized bedrooms. The home features a small, fenced backyard that provides a sense of privacy—perfect for pets, light gardening, or enjoying a peaceful outdoor moment. Overall, it’s a neat, low-maintenance home with a warm and welcoming feel.

5. 2025-12-19
   listed $249,900 Active 473-char remark

   Show marketing remark (473 chars)

   A charming three-bedroom, one-bathroom home with a cozy and inviting atmosphere. a spacious living room that offers plenty of room to relax or entertain. The floor plan is efficient and easy to navigate, with comfortably sized bedrooms. The home features a small, fenced backyard that provides a sense of privacy—perfect for pets, light gardening, or enjoying a peaceful outdoor moment. Overall, it’s a neat, low-maintenance home with a warm and welcoming feel.

6. 2017-10-26
   soldstatus $69,000
7. 2016-09-22
   soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $626 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,786 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,160/yr (+$97/mo · 185.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,103
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$626
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,688
• − Management: −$1,688
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$4,075
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$978
• After-tax cash flow: $1,060/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Live Oak Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622050
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $46,813
• Composite: 40.92/100
• National rank: #7511
• State rank: #569 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Live Oak

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #197
• US rank: #6366

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing F Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Live Oak, CA
• City population: 36,047
• Population (ZIP): 10,945

Population outlook (Sutter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,244 people
• By 2030: 97,170 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 96,137 · -1.1%
• By 2050: 93,604 · -3.7%
• By 2075: 85,008 · -12.6%
• By 2100: 71,584 · -26.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 37% Two or more races 16% Asian 16% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sutter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.1% · R 64.5% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.7pp toward R · 2008: -16.7pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+16.3 2012: R+21.8 2008: R+16.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.98%
• Current HPI: 265.9488
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+327.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $235,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $244,500 CRMLS
• 2025-12-19 Listed $249,900 CRMLS
• 2017-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
• 2016-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $626 · -49.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.