21291 W Wind Spirit Ln

Congress, AZ 85332

$97,000C+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 320 sqft · Built 1979 · Manufactured · Active · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,030/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$509
• Tax + insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$64
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $135/mo
• Annual: $1,614/yr
• Cap rate: 7.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.94%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $27,160

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $97k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $135 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $97k).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $96k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($671 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#75 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Congress Elementary District (4479) (rural): math 60% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #91 of 501 in AZ (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Congress Elementary School (math 44% / reading 34%, grade F, #398 of 1,109 statewide, top 37%, 102 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 59% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Congress Elementary District (4479) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $97k implies a 198% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.