21291 W Wind Spirit Ln · Congress, AZ 85332

$97,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 320 sqft · Manufactured public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1979 3,575 sqft lot $64/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Needs a little TLC, but very livable. 1 br, 1 ba, 12x20 addition, has separate shed with work bench. 12x12 gazebo, what a place for the price, in Arizona.

Key facts

• 3,575 sq ft lot
• Built 1979
• Listed 29 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has association; annual fee for grounds maintenance; Community features include pickleball courts and coin-op/community laundry

Exterior

• Utilities: Private sewer; Private water company
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Fee simple ownership; Asphalt road access
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Storage; Shed(s); Gravel/stone front and back; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: Possible 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; 3/4 bath in master bedroom; Laminate counters
• Laundry & utility: No laundry in unit (none)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $97k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $135 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $97k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#75 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Congress Elementary District (4479) (rural): math 60% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #91 of 501 in AZ (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Congress Elementary School (math 44% / reading 34%, grade F, #398 of 1,109 statewide, top 37%, 102 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 59% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Congress Elementary District (4479) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($671 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $97k implies a 198% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,545 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.94%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.77% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $24,302
• Equity at exit: $47,901

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.57×
• Total profit: $69,727
• Equity at exit: $77,342

Cash invested: $27,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85332

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,030 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$509
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$64
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $860

Max offer price $97,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,250
• Closing costs: $2,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $64 · $768/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $97,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $97,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $97,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $97,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $97,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $97,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $97,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $97,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $97,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $97,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $97,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $97,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $97,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-20
    listed $97,000 Active
15. 2017-08-01
    soldstatus $32,500 154-char remark

    Show marketing remark (154 chars)

    Needs a little TLC, but very livable. 1 br, 1 ba, 12x20 addition, has separate shed with work bench. 12x12 gazebo, what a place for the price, in Arizona.

16. 2017-02-24
    listed $38,000 154-char remark

    Show marketing remark (154 chars)

    Needs a little TLC, but very livable. 1 br, 1 ba, 12x20 addition, has separate shed with work bench. 12x12 gazebo, what a place for the price, in Arizona.

17. 2000-02-09
    soldstatus $8,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $798 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $798 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,366
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,434
• − Property taxes: −$798
• − Insurance: −$485
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$989
• − Management: −$989
• − HOA: −$768
• − Depreciation: −$2,822
• Taxable income: $81
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$20
• After-tax cash flow: $1,595/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Congress Elementary District (4479)
• NCES district ID: 0402220
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,613
• Composite: 49.83/100
• National rank: #4193
• State rank: #91 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Congress

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #75
• US rank: #11962

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Congress, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 1,777

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Scottish 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.77%
• Current HPI: 513.0899
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1112.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $97,000 ARMLS
• 2017-08-01 Sold (MLS) $32,500 ARMLS
• 2017-02-24 Listed $38,000 ARMLS
• 2000-02-09 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+38.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $798 · +10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.