18212 Hwy 7 Hwy

South Lead Hill, AR 72644

$119,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 385 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,013/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax + insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $-22/mo
• Annual: $-262/yr
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.79%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $33,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-22 ($-262/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $116k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $101k (14.8% below list).
• It's been on market 385 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $101k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($823 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#477 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Lead Hill School District (rural): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #166 of 238 in AR (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 92 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Boone County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (4.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 385 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.