18212 Hwy 7 Hwy · South Lead Hill, AR 72644

$119,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 385 Days on market

0.29 ac lot $100/sqft · 25% below area Est $158k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Comfortable home conveniently located close to the Lake! Perfect for 1st time home Buyer or retired couple that enjoys fishing. Good investment for Air BnB. Excellent school district. Home has some hard-wood floors, Newer HVAC system and metal roof is approximately 5 years old. Take a lot for only $119,000.

Key facts

• Hard-wood floors
• Metal roof
• Close to the lake

Tags

• CLOSE TO THE LAKE
• HARD-WOOD FLOORS
• NEWER HVAC SYSTEM
• METAL ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-22 ($-262/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $116k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $101k (14.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $101k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#477 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Lead Hill School District (rural): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #166 of 238 in AR (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 92 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($823 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.7% local appreciation)).
• Boone County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (4.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 385 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,337 (14.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 385 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.79%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $157,967
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: -24.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.7% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $24,016
• Equity at exit: $65,268

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $74,851
• Equity at exit: $110,892

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72644

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,013 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$149 /mo · $1,785/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $-22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,041

Max offer price $115,843

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $119,000 Active 385 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 384 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 383 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 382 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 381 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,000 Active 379 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,000 Active 378 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 375 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 374 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,000 Active 373 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $119,000 Active 369 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 368 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 367 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 366 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 365 DOM
16. 2025-06-04
    status Active 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    Comfortable home conveniently located close to the Lake! Perfect for 1st time home Buyer or retired couple that enjoys fishing. Good investment for Air BnB. Excellent school district. Home has some hard-wood floors, Newer HVAC system and metal roof is approximately 5 years old. Take a lot for only $119,000.

17. 2025-05-07
    status Pending 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    Comfortable home conveniently located close to the Lake! Perfect for 1st time home Buyer or retired couple that enjoys fishing. Good investment for Air BnB. Excellent school district. Home has some hard-wood floors, Newer HVAC system and metal roof is approximately 5 years old. Take a lot for only $119,000.

18. 2025-05-01
    listed $119,000 Active 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    Comfortable home conveniently located close to the Lake! Perfect for 1st time home Buyer or retired couple that enjoys fishing. Good investment for Air BnB. Excellent school district. Home has some hard-wood floors, Newer HVAC system and metal roof is approximately 5 years old. Take a lot for only $119,000.

19. 2023-06-09
    soldstatus $90,000
20. 2023-06-08
    soldstatus $90,000 525-char remark

    Show marketing remark (525 chars)

    Looking for a home with tons of character? This home is for you! You'll love the original doors and knobs and all the country charm this home has to offer! Home is on 1 acre (m/l) close to Bull Shoals Lake! This home has 2 bedrooms, 1 bath, real hardwood floors in several rooms. Built in cabinets in dining room and ample storage in kitchen and dedicated pantry. Remove a wall and you'll have that open floor plan you've always wanted! Beautiful pasture land view behind the house. Come see the potential in this home!

21. 2023-03-28
    listed $84,900 525-char remark

    Show marketing remark (525 chars)

    Looking for a home with tons of character? This home is for you! You'll love the original doors and knobs and all the country charm this home has to offer! Home is on 1 acre (m/l) close to Bull Shoals Lake! This home has 2 bedrooms, 1 bath, real hardwood floors in several rooms. Built in cabinets in dining room and ample storage in kitchen and dedicated pantry. Remove a wall and you'll have that open floor plan you've always wanted! Beautiful pasture land view behind the house. Come see the potential in this home!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,160
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,785
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$973
• − Management: −$973
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable loss: −$2,293
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$550
• After-tax cash flow: $288/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lead Hill School District
• NCES district ID: 0503420
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $32,310
• Composite: 23.24/100
• National rank: #7935
• State rank: #166 of 238 in AR

Livability — South Lead Hill

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #477
• US rank: #25496

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,640

Population outlook (Boone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,238 people
• By 2030: 36,808 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 35,597 · -4.4%
• By 2050: 34,197 · -8.2%
• By 2075: 30,503 · -18.1%
• By 2100: 25,797 · -30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Boone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.0) · D 16.7% · R 81.6% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.3pp toward R · 2008: -39.7pp · 2024: -65.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.0 2020: R+61.9 2016: R+58.5 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+39.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.70%
• Current HPI: 226.9247
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+40.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-04 Relisted — NWARMLS
• 2025-05-07 Pending — NWARMLS
• 2025-05-01 Listed $119,000 NWARMLS
• 2023-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2023-06-08 Sold (MLS) $90,000 NWARMLS
• 2023-03-28 Listed $84,900 NWARMLS

Property tax history

-18.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $45 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.