9609 E Monte Ave

Mesa, AZ 85209

$454,900D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,867 sqft · Built 1999 · SingleFamily · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,342/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,386
• Tax + insurance: −$329
• HOA: −$93
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $-957/mo
• Annual: $-11,480/yr
• Cap rate: 3.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.01%
• DSCR: 0.60
• 1% rule: 0.51%
• Cash to close: $127,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $455k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-957 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (37.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (48.5% below list).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($441k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $234k (48.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#6 in AZ, #2,034 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D.
• Gilbert Unified District (4239) (suburban): math 49% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #38 of 249 in AZ (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Augusta Ranch Elementary (math 47% / reading 58%, grade C-, #233 of 1,109 statewide, top 22%, 953 students, 29% FRL); Desert Ridge Jr. High (math 28% / reading 43%, grade F, #62 of 218 statewide, top 29%, 973 students, 26% FRL); Desert Ridge High (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #136 of 381 statewide, top 36%, 2,284 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 170 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.