9609 E Monte Ave · Mesa, AZ
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (shaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 4/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $610 – $1,132
Heat risk 9/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 111°F)
- 5 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 14 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 2 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 3 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- Appreciation +5.7/10.0
- Cash flow +5.6/30.0
- Schools +4.6/10.0
- Livability +4.0/5.0
- Rent growth +2.6/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- 1% rule +0.1/10.0
- DSCR +0.0/10.0
$454,900
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Beautiful family friendly golf course community of Augusta Ranch is this perfect 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom 1868 sq foot single story home with great room floor plan, brand new flooring, upgraded kitchen appliances and kitchen sink , All fixtures, fans and lighting have been updated. Dual flush toilets installed in each bathroom. Recent addition of Nest Smart Thermostat and Ring Video Doorbell are included. for those summer parties good size back yard and enough room to build a pool. Great location with convenient closeness and ease of access to both the 202 and 60 Freeways
Key facts
- 7,200 sq ft lot
- 2 garage spots
- Built 1999
Property features AI
Finance
- Other: Tax and assessor data available (lot and building area sourced to assessor)
- Financial info: Current financing: non-assumable
- HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee of $279 covering grounds maintenance; Association rules prohibit visible trucks, trailers, RVs, and boats; Community amenities include golf, a lake, playground, and biking/walking paths
Exterior
- Parking: 2 covered garage spaces with direct access and garage door opener; 2 open parking spaces
- Security: Owned security system
- Utilities: City water; Public sewer
- Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
- Construction: Stucco and painted wood frame construction
- Exterior features: Sprinklers front and rear; Desert landscaping in front; Grass in back; Front and rear irrigation; Block fencing; Tile roof; Asphalt road (city maintained)
Interior
- Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Kitchen island; Pantry; Laminate counters; Dishwasher; Disposal; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar
- Bedrooms: Up to 4 possible bedrooms
- Flooring: Carpet; Tile
- Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
- Interior features: High-speed internet; Owned security system; Smart home features; Double vanity in master bath; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; 9+ foot flat ceilings; No interior steps; Kitchen island; Pantry; Full bath in master bedroom; Separate shower and tub; Laminate counters; Dishwasher; Disposal; Dual-pane windows with vinyl frames; Solar panels
- Laundry & utility: Laundry inside with washer/dryer hookups
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $455k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-957 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (37.1% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (48.5% below list).
- Recommended offer: $234k (48.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 79/100 on livability (#6 in AZ, #2,034 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D.
- Gilbert Unified District (4239) (suburban): math 49% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #38 of 249 in AZ (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
- Zoned schools: Augusta Ranch Elementary (math 47% / reading 58%, grade C-, #233 of 1,109 statewide, top 22%, 953 students, 29% FRL); Desert Ridge Jr. High (math 28% / reading 43%, grade F, #62 of 218 statewide, top 29%, 973 students, 26% FRL); Desert Ridge High (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #136 of 381 statewide, top 36%, 2,284 students, 23% FRL).
- Market conditions: Rents flat; 170 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $10k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
- Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($441k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.51% ✗
- Cap rate
- 3.77%
- Cash-on-cash
- -9.01%
- DSCR
- 0.60
- GRM
- 16.2
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $581,784
- List price
- $454,900
- Delta
- -19.23%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9311 E Milagro Ave | 0.42mi | 4/2.0 | 1,924 (+3%) | 2mo | $500,000 | $260 | 70 |
| 9812 E Monterey Ave | 0.25mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,951 (+4%) | 2mo | $556,000 | $285 | 70 |
| 2824 S 96th St | 0.46mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,877 (+0%) | 2mo | $490,000 | $261 | 67 |
| 9628 E Lindner Ave | 0.42mi | 4/2.0 | 1,968 (+5%) | 2mo | $465,000 | $236 | 66 |
| 9534 E Keats Ave | 0.47mi | 4/2.0 | 1,968 (+5%) | 1mo | $522,500 | $265 | 64 |
| 9611 E Obispo Ave | 0.62mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,877 (+0%) | 0mo | $500,000 | $266 | 61 |
| 10104 E Nichols Ave | 0.69mi | 4/3.0 | 1,937 (+4%) | 3mo | $515,000 | $266 | 59 |
| 2415 S Compton -- | 0.39mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,691 (-9%) | 2mo | $425,500 | $252 | 55 |
| 9310 E Lobo Ave | 0.46mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,691 (-9%) | 1mo | $375,000 | $222 | 53 |
| 9248 E Lobo Ave | 0.50mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,691 (-9%) | 2mo | $411,000 | $243 | 50 |
| 9316 E Monterey Ave | 0.41mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,594 (-15%) | 3mo | $480,000 | $301 | 45 |
| 2202 S Duval -- | 0.47mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 2,134 (+14%) | 3mo | $670,000 | $314 | 43 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
1.44% appreciation · 0.54% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -7.4%
- Equity multiple
- 0.62×
- Total profit
- $-48,374
- Equity at exit
- $165,804
- IRR
- -2.8%
- Equity multiple
- 0.64×
- Total profit
- $-45,566
- Equity at exit
- $228,705
Cash invested: $127,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Arizona
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 85209
- Home prices YoY
- 0.5%
- Rents YoY
- 0.5%
- Active inventory
- 170
- Price-to-rent
- 16.2×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,342 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$2,386
- Tax from tax record
- −$139 /mo · $1,669/yr
- Insurance
- −$190
- HOA
- −$93
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$492
- Net cashflow
- $-957
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-699 | -5% $-828 | +0% $-957 | +5% $-1,085 | +10% $-1,214 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-1,142 | -5% $-1,049 | +0% $-957 | +5% $-864 | +10% $-772 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-728 | -0.5pp $-841 | base $-957 | +0.5pp $-1,075 | +1.0pp $-1,194 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $113,725
- Closing costs
- $13,647
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 40 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2657 S Keene Mesa, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1500 | $2,050 | $1.37 | 1d | 1 | 0.34mi |
| 9322 E Lobo Ave Mesa, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1691 | $2,200 | $1.30 | 24d | 1 | 0.45mi |
| 9304 E Monte Ave Mesa, AZ | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1857 | $2,225 | $1.20 | 46d | 1 | 0.46mi |
| 2024 S Baldwin #100 Mesa, AZ | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1379 | $2,100 | $1.52 | 0d | 1 | 0.52mi |
| 2031 S Alicia Mesa, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1524 | $2,009 | $1.32 | 17d | 1 | 0.53mi |
| 2031 S Alicia Mesa, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1524 | $2,049 | $1.34 | 24d | 1 | 0.53mi |
| 2031 S Alicia Mesa, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1524 | $2,109 | $1.38 | 46d | 1 | 0.53mi |
| 2024 S Baldwin #40 Mesa, AZ | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1384 | $1,800 | $1.30 | 26d | 1 | 0.56mi |
| 9335 E Baseline Rd Mesa, AZ | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1162 | $2,100 | $1.81 | 0d | 12 | 0.58mi |
| 9233 E Neville Ave Mesa, AZ | 2.0–3.0 | 2.0 | 1142 | $1,900 | $1.66 | 17d | 3 | 0.60mi |
| 9233 E Neville Ave Mesa, AZ | 2.0–3.0 | 2.0 | 1145 | $1,750 | $1.53 | 26d | 1 | 0.60mi |
| 9231 E Lindner Ave Mesa, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1572 | $2,295 | $1.46 | 7d | 1 | 0.65mi |
| 9909 E Onza Ave Mesa, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1401 | $2,165 | $1.55 | 21d | 1 | 0.68mi |
| 9909 E Onza Ave Mesa, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1401 | $2,165 | $1.55 | 26d | 1 | 0.68mi |
| 10044 E Osage Ave Mesa, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1695 | $2,295 | $1.35 | 46d | 1 | 0.74mi |
| 2026 S Boca Cir Mesa, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1456 | $2,165 | $1.49 | 46d | 1 | 0.95mi |
| 10413 E Natal Ave Mesa, AZ | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2148 | $2,550 | $1.19 | 26d | 1 | 0.96mi |
| 8865 E Baseline Rd #555 Mesa, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1387 | $3,900 | $2.81 | 22d | 1 | 0.98mi |
| 8865 E Baseline Rd #555 Mesa, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1387 | $3,900 | $2.81 | 26d | 1 | 0.98mi |
| 10251 E Obispo Ave Mesa, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1614 | $1,999 | $1.24 | 46d | 1 | 0.99mi |
| 10258 E Plata Ave Mesa, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1614 | $2,195 | $1.36 | 1d | 1 | 1.01mi |
| 8757 E Lomita Ave Mesa, AZ | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1914 | $2,300 | $1.20 | 26d | 1 | 1.12mi |
| 8918 E Oro Cir Mesa, AZ | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1566 | $2,100 | $1.34 | 19d | 1 | 1.13mi |
| 8918 E Oro Cir Mesa, AZ | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1566 | $2,180 | $1.39 | 46d | 1 | 1.13mi |
| 2223 S Gordon Mesa, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1278 | $2,250 | $1.76 | 26d | 1 | 1.13mi |
| 10509 E Olla Ave Mesa, AZ | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2250 | $2,600 | $1.16 | 0d | 1 | 1.18mi |
| 3121 S Mandy Mesa, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1357 | $2,190 | $1.61 | 6d | 1 | 1.18mi |
| 8928 E Pampa Ave Mesa, AZ | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1723 | $10,500 | $6.09 | 26d | 1 | 1.19mi |
| 8915 E Pampa Ave Mesa, AZ | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1700 | $1,900 | $1.12 | 46d | 1 | 1.23mi |
| 10560 E Nichols Ave Mesa, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1704 | $3,495 | $2.05 | 26d | 1 | 1.24mi |
| 2051 S 87th Pl Mesa, AZ | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2090 | $2,195 | $1.05 | 20d | 1 | 1.24mi |
| 8843 E Pampa Ave Mesa, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1357 | $2,050 | $1.51 | 7d | 1 | 1.25mi |
| 8852 E Plana Ave Mesa, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1357 | $1,995 | $1.47 | 46d | 1 | 1.29mi |
| 8720 E Knowles Ave Mesa, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1692 | $1,995 | $1.18 | 5d | 1 | 1.30mi |
| 8720 E Knowles Ave Mesa, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1692 | $1,995 | $1.18 | 1d | 1 | 1.30mi |
| 10638 E Olla Ave Mesa, AZ | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1535 | $2,140 | $1.39 | 26d | 1 | 1.32mi |
| 9745 E Hampton Ave Mesa, AZ | 2.0–4.0 | 2.0–3.0 | 1785 | $3,146 | $1.76 | 0d | 8 | 1.33mi |
| 10502 E Posada Ave Mesa, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2293 | $8,500 | $3.71 | 26d | 1 | 1.33mi |
| 8566 E Desert Ln Mesa, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1918 | $2,200 | $1.15 | 17d | 1 | 1.35mi |
| 8566 E Desert Ln Mesa, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1918 | $2,200 | $1.15 | 21d | 1 | 1.35mi |
HOA detail
- Monthly dues
- $93 · $1,116/yr
- Likely covers
- pool
Listing history 38 events
-
2026-06-22pricedays on market $454,900 Active 45 DOM
-
2026-06-21days on market $469,900 Active 44 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $469,900 Active 41 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $469,900 Active 40 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $469,900 Active 39 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $469,900 Active 38 DOM
-
2026-06-13remarks 679-char remark
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2026-06-13days on market $469,900 Active 36 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $469,900 Active 32 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $469,900 Active 31 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $469,900 Active 30 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $469,900 Active 27 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $469,900 Active 26 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $469,900 Active 25 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $469,900 Active 24 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $469,900 Active 23 DOM
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2026-05-08$469,900 Active 291-char remark
-
2025-05-20historical
-
2025-03-06price $475,000
-
2025-02-27$420,000 Active
-
2022-02-24soldstatus $420,000
-
2021-06-22soldstatus $420,000 Closed
Show marketing remark (578 chars)
Beautiful family friendly golf course community of Augusta Ranch is this perfect 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom 1868 sq foot single story home with great room floor plan, brand new flooring, upgraded kitchen appliances and kitchen sink , All fixtures, fans and lighting have been updated. Dual flush toilets installed in each bathroom. Recent addition of Nest Smart Thermostat and Ring Video Doorbell are included. for those summer parties good size back yard and enough room to build a pool. Great location with convenient closeness and ease of access to both the 202 and 60 Freeways
-
2021-06-22soldstatus $420,000
Show marketing remark (578 chars)
Beautiful family friendly golf course community of Augusta Ranch is this perfect 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom 1868 sq foot single story home with great room floor plan, brand new flooring, upgraded kitchen appliances and kitchen sink , All fixtures, fans and lighting have been updated. Dual flush toilets installed in each bathroom. Recent addition of Nest Smart Thermostat and Ring Video Doorbell are included. for those summer parties good size back yard and enough room to build a pool. Great location with convenient closeness and ease of access to both the 202 and 60 Freeways
-
2021-05-30status Pending
Show marketing remark (578 chars)
Beautiful family friendly golf course community of Augusta Ranch is this perfect 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom 1868 sq foot single story home with great room floor plan, brand new flooring, upgraded kitchen appliances and kitchen sink , All fixtures, fans and lighting have been updated. Dual flush toilets installed in each bathroom. Recent addition of Nest Smart Thermostat and Ring Video Doorbell are included. for those summer parties good size back yard and enough room to build a pool. Great location with convenient closeness and ease of access to both the 202 and 60 Freeways
-
2021-05-18historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
Show marketing remark (578 chars)
Beautiful family friendly golf course community of Augusta Ranch is this perfect 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom 1868 sq foot single story home with great room floor plan, brand new flooring, upgraded kitchen appliances and kitchen sink , All fixtures, fans and lighting have been updated. Dual flush toilets installed in each bathroom. Recent addition of Nest Smart Thermostat and Ring Video Doorbell are included. for those summer parties good size back yard and enough room to build a pool. Great location with convenient closeness and ease of access to both the 202 and 60 Freeways
-
2021-05-12$420,000 Active
Show marketing remark (578 chars)
Beautiful family friendly golf course community of Augusta Ranch is this perfect 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom 1868 sq foot single story home with great room floor plan, brand new flooring, upgraded kitchen appliances and kitchen sink , All fixtures, fans and lighting have been updated. Dual flush toilets installed in each bathroom. Recent addition of Nest Smart Thermostat and Ring Video Doorbell are included. for those summer parties good size back yard and enough room to build a pool. Great location with convenient closeness and ease of access to both the 202 and 60 Freeways
-
2019-10-03soldstatus $309,000 Closed
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2019-10-03soldstatus $309,000
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2019-09-17historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
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2019-09-15price $309,900
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2019-09-01price $313,000
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2019-08-27price $318,000
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2019-08-13price $323,500
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2019-07-20$324,900 Active
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2014-07-22soldstatus $215,000
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2014-07-17soldstatus $215,000 Closed
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2014-06-17status Pending
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2014-05-14$220,000 Active
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $1,669 · $139/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $3,002 · $250/mo
- Expected delta
- +$1,333/yr (+$111/mo · 79.9%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
- Heat 9/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥111°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $28,110
- − Mortgage interest
- −$25,481
- − Property taxes
- −$1,669
- − Insurance
- −$2,274
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,249
- − Management
- −$2,249
- − HOA
- −$1,116
- − Depreciation
- −$13,233
- Taxable loss
- −$20,162
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$4,839
- After-tax cash flow
- $-6,641/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Gilbert Unified District (4239)
- NCES district ID
- 0403400
- Math proficiency
- 49% ▼ -8.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 52% ▼ -7.00%
- Median HH income
- $74,715
- Composite
- 45.55/100
- National rank
- #2600
- State rank
- #38 of 249 in AZ
Livability — Mesa
- Score
- 79/100
- State rank
- #6
- US rank
- #2034
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Mesa, AZ
- County
- Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
- City population
- 555,266
- Metro
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- Population (ZIP)
- 43,150
- Household income
- $84,432
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 972.0
Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 4,979,203 people
- By 2030
- 5,378,229 · +8.0%
- By 2040
- 6,156,598 · +23.6%
- By 2050
- 6,872,376 · +38.0%
- By 2075
- 8,401,270 · +68.7%
- By 2100
- 9,247,439 · +85.7%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (72%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 3%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 11%
- Common ancestry
- Portuguese 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
- Foreign-born
- 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
- Languages at home
- 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Chinese 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa
- 2024 margin
- Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▲ 1.44%
- Current HPI
- 277.6198
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 0.54%
- Metro
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 4.54%
- F500 in state
- 20
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 2 | $13B |
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| Mining / Metals | 1 | $23B |
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| Environmental Services | 1 | $16B |
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| Metals / Steel | 1 | $14B |
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| Technology Distribution | 1 | $9B |
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| Homebuilding | 1 | $8B |
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Price history
+113.6% since first listed22 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-08 Listed $469,900 ARMLS
- 2025-05-20 Listing Removed — ARMLS
- 2025-03-06 Price Changed $475,000 ARMLS
- 2025-02-27 Listed $420,000 ARMLS
- 2022-02-24 Sold (Public Records) $420,000 Public Records
- 2021-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $420,000 Public Records
- 2021-06-22 Sold (MLS) $420,000 ARMLS
- 2021-05-30 Pending — ARMLS
- 2021-05-18 Contingent — ARMLS
- 2021-05-12 Listed $420,000 ARMLS
- 2019-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $309,000 Public Records
- 2019-10-03 Sold (MLS) $309,000 ARMLS
- 2019-09-17 Contingent — ARMLS
- 2019-09-15 Price Changed $309,900 ARMLS
- 2019-09-01 Price Changed $313,000 ARMLS
- 2019-08-27 Price Changed $318,000 ARMLS
- 2019-08-13 Price Changed $323,500 ARMLS
- 2019-07-20 Listed $324,900 ARMLS
- 2014-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records
- 2014-07-17 Sold (MLS) $215,000 ARMLS
- 2014-06-17 Pending — ARMLS
- 2014-05-14 Listed $220,000 ARMLS
Property tax history
+0.3%/yrLatest (2025): $1,669 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…