156 Lake Shore Dr

Westwood Shores, TX 75862

$50,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 1997 · Manufactured · Active · 100 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,283/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $676/mo
• Annual: $8,111/yr
• Cap rate: 22.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.94%
• DSCR: 3.58
• 1% rule: 2.57%
• Cash to close: $14,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $676 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($46k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $46k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $88 of equity ($346 loan paydown + $-258 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#914 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Groveton ISD (rural): math 45% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #281 of 826 in TX (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Groveton El (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 340 students, 70% FRL); Groveton J H-H S (math 50% / reading 49%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 428 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 50% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 472 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Trinity County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Trinity County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 22.5% vs local median 3.4% in Westwood Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.