156 Lake Shore Dr · Westwood Shores, TX 75862

$50,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1997 $41/sqft · 65% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice quiet gated subdivision

Key facts

• Built 1997
• Listed 100 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $676 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $46k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.5% vs local median 3.6% in Westwood Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#914 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Groveton ISD (rural): math 45% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #281 of 826 in TX (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Groveton El (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 340 students, 70% FRL); Groveton J H-H S (math 50% / reading 49%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 428 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 50% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 472 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Trinity County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $88 of equity ($346 loan paydown + $-258 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Trinity County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($46k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $45,500 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.94%
• DSCR: 3.58
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $141,875
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: -64.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
729 N Lake Shore Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	2mo	$325,000	$267	98
700 Harbor Point Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	6mo	$120,000	$99	85
275 Dogwood Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-5%)	5mo	$137,500	$119	81
155 Canadian Dr	0.42mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,216 (0%)	8mo	$149,500	$123	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.52% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 59.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.89×
• Total profit: $40,401
• Equity at exit: $13,240

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.85×
• Total profit: $95,907
• Equity at exit: $14,927

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75862

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 472
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,283 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $652/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $676

Break-even live

Break-even rent $427

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $704	-5% $690	+0% $676	+5% $662	+10% $648
Rent	-10% $575	-5% $625	+0% $676	+5% $727	+10% $777
Rate	-1.0pp $701	-0.5pp $689	base $676	+0.5pp $663	+1.0pp $650

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $50,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $50,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $50,000 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $50,000 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $50,000 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $50,000 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $50,000 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $50,000 Active 86 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $50,000 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 79 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $50,000 Active 78 DOM
18. 2026-03-09
    listed $50,000 Active 28-char remark

    Show marketing remark (28 chars)

    Nice quiet gated subdivision

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $652 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $915 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$263/yr (+$22/mo · 40.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe 90% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,392
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$652
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,231
• − Management: −$1,231
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $7,772
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,865
• After-tax cash flow: $6,246/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Groveton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821900
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,375
• Composite: 37.76/100
• National rank: #4348
• State rank: #281 of 826 in TX

Livability — Westwood Shores

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #914
• US rank: #16347

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,030

Population outlook (Trinity County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,746 people
• By 2030: 13,333 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 12,542 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 11,942 · -13.1%
• By 2075: 10,871 · -20.9%
• By 2100: 9,784 · -28.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 10% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Trinity

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.0) · D 16.2% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.3pp toward R · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -67.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.0 2020: R+61.3 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.52%
• Current HPI: 174.6638
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Listed $50,000 Fizber.com

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $652 · -23.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.