139 Oak St

St. Johnsbury, VT 05819

$89,831C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 0 sqft · Built 2024 · Manufactured · Active · 464 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,397/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax + insurance: −$216
• HOA: −$491
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $-74/mo
• Annual: $-891/yr
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.37%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 1.56%
• Cash to close: $25,153

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-891/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $79k (12.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 464 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $621 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Zoned schools: St. Johnsbury School (math 19% / reading 37%, grade F, #149 of 192 statewide, top 78%, 702 students, 52% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 35% of rent.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 112 units permitted in Caledonia County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Caledonia County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.4% in St. Johnsbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 464 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?