139 Oak St · St. Johnsbury, VT 05819

$89,831

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 0 sqft · Manufactured public records · 464 Days on market

Built 2024 $491/mo HOA · 35% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 139 Oak Street, St. Johnsbury VT 05819, where modern comfort meets affordability River Bend MHC Park! This brand-new H5 Colony DS 1008-P model manufactured home offers 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and 747 sq. ft. (13’4” x 56’ ft. ) of thoughtfully designed living space. Step inside to an open-concept layout with stylish finishes, a bright living area, and a well-appointed kitchen. The home features energy-efficient construction, modern appliances, and low-maintenance materials, making it perfect for easy living. Located in a peaceful and well-maintained community, this home is ideal for those looking for a move-in-ready option in a convenient location. Don’t mi

Key facts

• Built 2024
• Listed 464 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park name: River Bend MHC; Road frontage is on paved public road
• HOA & community: Monthly park fee of $491 covering park fees, water, sewer and trash

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking (dirt)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 200-amp electric service with circuit breakers; High-speed internet available; Cable and telephone available
• Home design: Single-wide manufactured home; Clay exterior color; Shingle (asphalt) roof; New construction (2024); Located in River Bend Mobile Home Community (park approved)
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Manufactured home construction; Year built 2024; Model: H4 Colony DS 1007-P
• Exterior features: Level lot; Dirt driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric stove; Microwave; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Bedroom (13'4" x 10') — main level; Bedroom (13'4" x 8') — main level
• Bathrooms: Full bathroom — main level
• Heating & cooling: Propane forced-air heat
• Interior features: 3 total rooms; 1 full bathroom
• Laundry & utility: Energy Star washer; Energy Star dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-891/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $79k (12.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.4% in St. Johnsbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Zoned schools: St. Johnsbury School (math 19% / reading 37%, grade F, #149 of 192 statewide, top 78%, 702 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 112 units permitted in Caledonia County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $621 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caledonia County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 464 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 35% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,051 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 464 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.37%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
186 Oak St	0.05mi	3/1.5 (+1)	982	14mo	$125,000	$127	67
30 Moutain Ave	0.81mi	2/1.0	684	3mo	$95,900	$140	50
1459 Concord Ave	1.48mi	2/1.0	684	13mo	$95,000	$139	42
919 Concord Ave	0.98mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,404	18mo	$228,000	$162	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.41% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-16,692
• Equity at exit: $15,768

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-17,201
• Equity at exit: $11,907

Cash invested: $25,153 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05819

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,397 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,347/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$491
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $-74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,491

Max offer price $79,083

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-12	-5% $-43	+0% $-74	+5% $-105	+10% $-136
Rent	-10% $-185	-5% $-129	+0% $-74	+5% $-19	+10% $36
Rate	-1.0pp $-29	-0.5pp $-51	base $-74	+0.5pp $-98	+1.0pp $-121

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,458
• Closing costs: $2,695
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
68 Elm St Unit 3 St Johnsbury, VT	3.0	1.0	—	$1,395	—	45d	1	0.52mi
24 Steeple Pl Unit 4 St Johnsbury, VT	2.0	1.0	—	$1,400	—	45d	1	0.54mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $491 · $5,892/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,831 Active 464 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,831 Active 463 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,831 Active 461 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,831 Active 460 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,831 Active 459 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,831 Active 458 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,831 Active 457 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,831 Active 456 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,831 Active 455 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $89,831 Active 452 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,831 Active 451 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,831 Active 450 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,831 Active 449 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,831 Active 446 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,831 Active 445 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,831 Active 444 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,831 Active 443 DOM
18. 2025-03-14
    listed $89,831 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,769
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,032
• − Property taxes: −$1,347
• − Insurance: −$1,247
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,342
• − Management: −$1,342
• − HOA: −$5,892
• − Depreciation: −$2,613
• Taxable loss: −$2,045
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$491
• After-tax cash flow: $-400/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — St. Johnsbury

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Johnsbury, VT
• Population (ZIP): 9,323

Population outlook (Caledonia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,828 people
• By 2030: 28,820 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 26,262 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 23,780 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 18,516 · -37.9%
• By 2100: 13,647 · -54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Slovak 6% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caledonia

• 2024 margin: D (+12.4) · D 54.5% · R 42.0% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.8pp toward R · 2008: 23.3pp · 2024: 12.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.4 2020: D+15.2 2016: D+7.0 2012: D+22.9 2008: D+23.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.41%
• Current HPI: 291.8894
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-03-14 Listed $89,831 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

-66.4%/yr

Latest (2016): $20 · -13.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.