Mystique Plan

Greensboro, GA 30642

$438,990D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,809 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 794 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,588
• Tax + insurance: −$823
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$840
• Net cashflow: $-251/mo
• Annual: $-3,013/yr
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.18%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $138,204

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $439k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-251 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $400k (8.9% below list).
• It's been on market 794 days — a 12% lower offer ($386k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $386k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#272 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Greene County (rural): math 27% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #82 of 174 in GA (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Anita White Carson Middle School (math 8% / reading 15%, grade F, #424 of 470 statewide, top 90%, 524 students, 97% FRL); Greene County High School (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #394 of 424 statewide, top 97%, 420 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 64% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 8% at this address vs 32% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Greene County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 643 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 295 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Greene County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 30% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 0.7% in Greensboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,000/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 794 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.