238-46 E 15th Ave

Escondido, CA 92025

$1,850,000F

10 bd · 7.0 ba · 5,200 sqft · Built 1970 · MultiFamily · Active · 111 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $12,719/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,702
• Tax + insurance: −$1,787
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,671
• Net cashflow: $-1,441/mo
• Annual: $-17,288/yr
• Cap rate: 5.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.34%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $518,000

Investor read

• This is a 5 × 2-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $1.85M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-288/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.60M (13.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.27M (31.2% below list).
• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($1.68M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.27M (31.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $13k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $56k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#238 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, cost of living F.
• Escondido Union High (suburban): math 19% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #247 of 517 in CA (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Juniper Elementary (578 students, 91% FRL); Bear Valley Middle (938 students, 66% FRL); San Pasqual High (math 22% / reading 59%, grade F, #508 of 1,170 statewide, top 44%, 1,936 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 138 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $900k; list at $1.85M implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.4% in Escondido — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $12,719/mo this rent would consume 188% of the median local household income ($81k/yr) (locally 3295% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?