238-46 E 15th Ave · Escondido, CA 92025

$1,850,000

10 bd · 7.0 ba · 5,200 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 111 Days on market

Built 1970

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 5 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

Presenting a well-maintained 5-unit multifamily property, each unit offering 2 bedrooms with thoughtful updates throughout — including modern flooring, fresh paint, and renovated kitchens and bathrooms. Every unit features in-unit washer/dryer hookups and private yard space, adding a level of comfort and convenience that tenants value. The property includes five garages — two 2-car garages and three single-car garages — providing ample parking and potential for additional rental income. Situated on an expansive 16,000+ square foot lot, there is meaningful upside through a potential ADU addition, making this an attractive opportunity for investors looking to grow cash flow.

Key facts

• Renovated kitchens
• Renovated bathrooms
• Private yard space

Tags

• IN UNIT WASHER DRYER HOOKUPS
• PRIVATE YARD SPACE
• RENOVATED KITCHENS
• RENOVATED BATHROOMS
• POTENTIAL ADU ADDITION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Garage; 10 parking spaces total
• Home design: Residential income property; Commercial-residential income subtype

Interior

• Heating & cooling: Has cooling (wall/window units)
• Interior features: Wall/window air conditioning units

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5 × 2-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $1.85M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-288/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.60M (13.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.27M (31.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.27M (31.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.4% in Escondido — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#238 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime D+.
• Escondido Union High (suburban): math 19% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #247 of 517 in CA (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 138 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $12,719/mo this rent would consume 188% of the median local household income ($81k/yr) (locally 3295% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $13k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $56k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($1.68M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $900k; list at $1.85M implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,271,900 (31.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.34%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-416,377
• Equity at exit: $275,841

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-578,846
• Equity at exit: $159,954

Cash invested: $518,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92025

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 138
• Price-to-rent: 60.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,719 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,702
• Tax from tax record: −$1,016 /mo · $12,195/yr
• Insurance: −$771
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,671
• Net cashflow: $-1,441

Break-even live

Break-even rent $14,543

Max offer price $1,595,494

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-393	-5% $-917	+0% $-1,441	+5% $-1,964	+10% $-2,488
Rent	-10% $-2,446	-5% $-1,943	+0% $-1,441	+5% $-938	+10% $-436
Rate	-1.0pp $-509	-0.5pp $-970	base $-1,441	+0.5pp $-1,920	+1.0pp $-2,408

5-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 5× units	2	2	$12,720
Total (5 units)			$12,719

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $462,500
• Closing costs: $55,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,850,000 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,850,000 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,850,000 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,850,000 Active 106 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,850,000 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,850,000 Active 103 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,850,000 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,850,000 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,850,000 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,850,000 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,850,000 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,850,000 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,850,000 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,850,000 Active 90 DOM
15. 2026-03-02
    listed $1,850,000 Active
16. 2016-02-29
    soldstatus $900,000
17. 2010-01-19
    soldstatus $610,000
18. 1990-02-14
    soldstatus $335,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $12,195 · $1,016/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,060 · $1,172/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,865/yr (+$155/mo · 15.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $152,628
• − Mortgage interest: −$103,629
• − Property taxes: −$12,195
• − Insurance: −$9,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$12,210
• − Management: −$12,210
• − Depreciation: −$53,818
• Taxable loss: −$50,685
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$12,164
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,124/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escondido Union High
• NCES district ID: 0612910
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,731
• Composite: 32.82/100
• National rank: #5620
• State rank: #247 of 517 in CA

Livability — Escondido

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #238
• US rank: #7829

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment B Housing C+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Escondido, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 177,903
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 49,989
• Household income: $81,106
• Rent vs Own: 56.6% rent · 43.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3295.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 33% Two or more races 27% Asian 5% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 48%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 38% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -603.83%
• Current HPI: 371.8986
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.07%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+452.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Listed $1,850,000 SDMLS
• 2016-02-29 Sold (Public Records) $900,000 Public Records
• 2010-01-19 Sold (Public Records) $610,000 Public Records
• 1990-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $335,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,195 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.