501 Crows Peak Rd

Terlingua, TX 79852

$135,000D-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 610 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Active · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,026/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$225
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $-122/mo
• Annual: $-1,469/yr
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.89%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-122 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $117k (13.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (24.0% below list).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $103k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#875 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Alpine ISD (town): math 43% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #235 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 310 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Brewster County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Brewster County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.