501 Crows Peak Rd · Terlingua, TX 79852

$135,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 610 sqft · SingleFamily · 31 Days on market

Built 2025 49 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Ready Set Camp! 3 New Gorgeous Jupe Tents w/ Solar, & 1 Special Edition Traveler R. V. beautifully placed on 48.76 Acres of the Big Bend High Desert. Property features its own private hilltop "Crows Peak", a Seasonal Pond, Cowboy Stock Tank, Abundant Wildlife & Native Flora. Established Hip Camp & Camping destination business with website and links to share, Call Skye for more information or a tour! Part of Terlingua Ranch, just minutes from the Lodge, Restaurant, & Sparkling Pool!

Key facts

• Cowboy stock tank
• Established hip camp
• Native flora

Tags

• PRIVATE HILLTOP
• SEASONAL POND
• COWBOY STOCK TANK
• ABUNDANT WILDLIFE
• NATIVE FLORA
• ESTABLISHED HIP CAMP

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pad
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Propane; Septic tank; Other water source
• Home design: Residential single-family home
• Construction: Other construction materials; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Solar; Other roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Zoned cooling; Window units
• Interior features: High ceilings; Blinds; Smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookups specified; Gas water heater; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-122 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $117k (13.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (24.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $103k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#875 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Alpine ISD (town): math 43% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #235 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 310 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Brewster County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Brewster County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,597 (24.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.89%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $8,480
• Equity at exit: $60,702

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $41,159
• Equity at exit: $93,549

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79852

• Active inventory: 310
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,026 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $-122

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,181

Max offer price $117,283

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    listed $135,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥101°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,312
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$985
• − Management: −$985
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$3,848
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$923
• After-tax cash flow: $-546/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alpine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807950
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $39,184
• Composite: 40.06/100
• National rank: #3814
• State rank: #235 of 826 in TX

Livability — Terlingua

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #875
• US rank: #15764

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 614

Population outlook (Brewster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,850 people
• By 2030: 8,577 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 7,903 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 7,338 · -17.1%
• By 2075: 5,950 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 4,678 · -47.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 21%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 4%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Brewster

• 2024 margin: R (+12.6) · D 43.0% · R 55.6% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: 3.0pp · 2024: -12.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.6 2020: R+4.2 2016: R+4.8 2012: R+5.4 2008: D+3.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $135,000 ODMLS