229 Old Hershey Rd

Elizabethtown, PA 17022

$340,000C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,400 sqft · Built 1986 · MultiFamily · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,951/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax + insurance: −$586
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $-38/mo
• Annual: $-454/yr
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.48%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $95,200

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $340k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-454/yr) — negative. Per door: $-19/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $333k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (13.2% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $295k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#201 in PA, #1,759 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Elizabethtown Area SD (suburban): math 46% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #123 of 539 in PA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 202 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.1% in Elizabethtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.