1631 Jackson Ln

Middletown, OH 45044

$3,750,000B-

2304 bd · None ba · 28,032 sqft · Built 1981 · MultiFamily · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $51,325/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$19,665
• Tax + insurance: −$4,328
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$10,778
• Net cashflow: $16,554/mo
• Annual: $198,643/yr
• Cap rate: 11.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.92%
• DSCR: 1.84
• 1% rule: 1.37%
• Cash to close: $1,050,000

Investor read

• This is a 48 × 1-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $3.75M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $17k ($199k/yr) — positive. Per door: $345/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($51k rent vs $3.75M).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($3.64M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $3.64M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $26k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $112k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#389 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D+, amenities D+.
• Middletown City (suburban): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #610 of 656 in OH (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 204 active listings in the ZIP; 1,163 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (356 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.3% rent growth), your $1.05M cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 3.8% in Middletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $51,325/mo this rent would consume 835% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 1532% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.