1631 Jackson Ln · Middletown, OH 45044

$3,750,000

2304 bd · None ba · 28,032 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1981

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 48 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

Well-maintained 48-unit multifamily community in Middletown, Ohio, featuring 48 spacious one-bedroom, one-bath apartments, each with a living room, dining area, and kitchen. This income-producing asset offers desirable tenant amenities, including an on-site leasing office, laundry facility, and dog park. Recent capital improvements include a new roof installed in 2022 and all new electrical service completed in 2023. Select units have also been updated with new hot water heaters, flooring, countertops, and other interior finishes. Rents continue to trend upward as units turn over, providing a clear path for continued revenue growth. The property also benefits from an on-site maintenance employee, with those expenses already incorporated into the current NOI. Located between Dayton and Cincinnati, this property presents an excellent investment opportunity with stable cash flow and additional upside potential through continued unit upgrades and operational efficiencies.

Key facts

• Dog park
• Tenant amenities
• Laundry facility

Tags

• MULTIFAMILY COMMUNITY
• TENANT AMENITIES
• ON-SITE LEASING OFFICE
• LAUNDRY FACILITY
• DOG PARK
• NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 48 × 1-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $3.75M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $17k ($199k/yr) — positive. Per door: $345/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($51k rent vs $3.75M).
• Recommended offer: $3.64M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 3.9% in Middletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#389 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D+, amenities D+.
• Middletown City (suburban): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #610 of 656 in OH (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 204 active listings in the ZIP; 1,163 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (356 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $51,325/mo this rent would consume 835% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 1532% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $26k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $112k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.3% rent growth), your $1.05M cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($3.64M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $3,637,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.92%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $622,839
• Equity at exit: $559,137

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.55×
• Total profit: $2,674,037
• Equity at exit: $324,231

Cash invested: $1,050,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45044

• Rents YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 204
• Price-to-rent: 292.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $51,325 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$19,665
• Tax from tax record: −$2,765 /mo · $33,183/yr
• Insurance: −$1,562
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$10,778
• Net cashflow: $16,554

Break-even live

Break-even rent $30,371

Max offer price $3,750,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $18,676	-5% $17,615	+0% $16,554	+5% $15,492	+10% $14,431
Rent	-10% $12,499	-5% $14,526	+0% $16,554	+5% $18,581	+10% $20,608
Rate	-1.0pp $18,442	-0.5pp $17,507	base $16,554	+0.5pp $15,582	+1.0pp $14,593

48-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 48× units	1	1	$51,312
Total (48 units)			$51,325

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $937,500
• Closing costs: $112,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $3,750,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $3,750,000 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $3,750,000 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $3,750,000 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $3,750,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,750,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $3,750,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $3,750,000 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $3,750,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $3,750,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $3,750,000 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $3,750,000 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $3,750,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-05-01
    listed $3,750,000 Active 984-char remark

    Show marketing remark (984 chars)

    Well-maintained 48-unit multifamily community in Middletown, Ohio, featuring 48 spacious one-bedroom, one-bath apartments, each with a living room, dining area, and kitchen. This income-producing asset offers desirable tenant amenities, including an on-site leasing office, laundry facility, and dog park. Recent capital improvements include a new roof installed in 2022 and all new electrical service completed in 2023. Select units have also been updated with new hot water heaters, flooring, countertops, and other interior finishes. Rents continue to trend upward as units turn over, providing a clear path for continued revenue growth. The property also benefits from an on-site maintenance employee, with those expenses already incorporated into the current NOI. Located between Dayton and Cincinnati, this property presents an excellent investment opportunity with stable cash flow and additional upside potential through continued unit upgrades and operational efficiencies.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $33,183 · $2,765/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $45,841 · $3,820/mo
• Expected delta: +$12,659/yr (+$1,055/mo · 38.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $615,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$210,058
• − Property taxes: −$33,183
• − Insurance: −$18,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$49,272
• − Management: −$49,272
• − Depreciation: −$109,091
• Taxable income: $146,274
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$35,106
• After-tax cash flow: $163,538/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown City
• NCES district ID: 3904440
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $36,650
• Composite: 20.35/100
• National rank: #8605
• State rank: #610 of 656 in OH

Livability — Middletown

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #389
• US rank: #6338

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middletown, OH
• County: Butler County · 381,674 people
• City population: 96,117
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 56,217
• Household income: $73,732
• Rent vs Own: 38.1% rent · 61.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1532.0

Population outlook (Butler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 387,706 people
• By 2030: 392,028 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 395,307 · +2.0%
• By 2050: 391,116 · +0.9%
• By 2075: 378,642 · -2.3%
• By 2100: 343,248 · -11.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butler

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.3) · D 36.4% · R 62.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.6pp · 2024: -26.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.3 2020: R+24.0 2016: R+28.3 2012: R+26.2 2008: R+22.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -164.07%
• Current HPI: 219.0479
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.31%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $3,750,000 Cincy MLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $33,183 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.