5636 S Wood Crest Dr #139

Tucson, AZ 85746

$123,000D

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,005 sqft · Built 1984 · Condo · Active · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,245/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$645
• Tax + insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$201
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $46/mo
• Annual: $546/yr
• Cap rate: 6.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.59%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $34,440

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $123k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $46 ($546/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $123k).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $119k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $850 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, employment D-.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Raul Grijalva Elementary School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,022 of 1,109 statewide, top 93%, 533 students, 80% FRL); Pistor Middle School (math 7% / reading 16%, grade F, #180 of 218 statewide, top 83%, 724 students, 74% FRL); Pueblo High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #267 of 381 statewide, top 72%, 1,831 students, 65% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 153 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $41k; list at $123k implies a 198% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.