1530 Armstrong #75

Novato, CA 94945

$299,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 500 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,721/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$498
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$781
• Net cashflow: $873/mo
• Annual: $10,481/yr
• Cap rate: 9.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.52%
• DSCR: 1.56
• 1% rule: 1.24%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $873 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $299k).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $290k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#211 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Novato Unified (suburban): math 38% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #160 of 517 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 149 units permitted in Marin County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marin County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $299k implies a 897% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 2.4% in Novato — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($108k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.