1530 Armstrong #75 · Novato, CA 94945

$299,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 500 sqft · Manufactured · 42 Days on market

$598/sqft · 260% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Living in Marin can be affordable! Here are a few of the Parks Amenities: Convenience Store and Deli, all pets are welcome and dog walk area. Original size 50 x 10 there was another room added with no permit. Selling property as is.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 42 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Park name not listed

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Single wide
• Construction: 500 sq. ft. living area
• Exterior features: Back yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range / cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator; Solid surface counters; Other kitchen features
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Solid surface countertops; No additional rooms listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $873 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $299k).
• Recommended offer: $290k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 2.4% in Novato — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#211 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Novato Unified (suburban): math 38% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #160 of 517 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 149 units permitted in Marin County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($108k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marin County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $299k implies a 897% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $290,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.52%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $83,025
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: 260.13%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $7,235
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $78,160
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94945

• Active inventory: 60
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,721 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,485/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$781
• Net cashflow: $873

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,616

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,080	-5% $977	+0% $873	+5% $770	+10% $667
Rent	-10% $579	-5% $726	+0% $873	+5% $1,020	+10% $1,167
Rate	-1.0pp $1,024	-0.5pp $949	base $873	+0.5pp $796	+1.0pp $717

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    listed $299,000 Active 1161-char remark
16. 2026-05-05
    historical $299,000 1161-char remark
17. 2017-06-09
    soldstatus $30,000 Sold 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Living in Marin can be affordable! Here are a few of the Parks Amenities: Convenience Store and Deli, all pets are welcome and dog walk area. Original size 50 x 10 there was another room added with no permit. Selling property as is.

18. 2017-06-01
    status Pending 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Living in Marin can be affordable! Here are a few of the Parks Amenities: Convenience Store and Deli, all pets are welcome and dog walk area. Original size 50 x 10 there was another room added with no permit. Selling property as is.

19. 2017-05-17
    listed $30,000 Active 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Living in Marin can be affordable! Here are a few of the Parks Amenities: Convenience Store and Deli, all pets are welcome and dog walk area. Original size 50 x 10 there was another room added with no permit. Selling property as is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,655
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$4,485
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,572
• − Management: −$3,572
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable income: $6,083
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,460
• After-tax cash flow: $9,021/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Novato Unified
• NCES district ID: 0627720
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $84,396
• Composite: 41.06/100
• National rank: #3576
• State rank: #160 of 517 in CA

Livability — Novato

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #211
• US rank: #6675

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marin County · 243,328 people
• City population: 59,522
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,635
• Household income: $107,790
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 357.0

Population outlook (Marin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 276,379 people
• By 2030: 282,942 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 292,937 · +6.0%
• By 2050: 300,449 · +8.7%
• By 2075: 316,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 303,948 · +10.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9% Asian 8% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+63.9) · D 80.6% · R 16.7% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.2pp toward D · 2008: 57.7pp · 2024: 63.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+63.9 2020: D+66.5 2016: D+62.9 2012: D+50.5 2008: D+57.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -725.83%
• Current HPI: 266.2049
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+896.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $299,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-05 Coming Soon $299,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2017-06-09 Sold (MLS) $30,000 BAREIS
• 2017-06-01 Pending — BAREIS
• 2017-05-17 Listed $30,000 BAREIS