507 Hill Cir

Stamford, TX 79553

$92,500B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,235 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 224 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,179/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$485
• Tax + insurance: −$213
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $234/mo
• Annual: $2,804/yr
• Cap rate: 9.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.82%
• DSCR: 1.48
• 1% rule: 1.28%
• Cash to close: $25,900

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $92k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $234 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $92k).
• It's been on market 224 days — a 12% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $81k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $691 of equity ($640 loan paydown + $51 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#344 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Stamford ISD (town): math 50% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #239 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oliver El (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 303 students, 75% FRL).
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Jones County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jones County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 224 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.