2509 View Lk #144

Santa Ana, CA 92705

$420,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,580 sqft · Built 1984 · Manufactured · Active · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,663/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,203
• Tax + insurance: −$700
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$769
• Net cashflow: $-9/mo
• Annual: $-104/yr
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.09%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $117,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $420k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-104/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $419k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $366k (12.8% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $366k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#871 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Orange Unified (urban): math 39% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #127 of 517 in CA (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fairhaven Elementary (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #973 of 1,571 statewide, top 73%, 445 students, 64% FRL); Portola Middle (597 students, 91% FRL); Orange High (math 19% / reading 48%, grade F, #656 of 1,170 statewide, top 57%, 1,807 students, 89% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 38% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Orange Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 97 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $420k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.5% in Santa Ana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.