23 Main St N

Windsor, NJ 08561

$558,888D+

4 bd · None ba · 2,000 sqft · Built 1825 · SingleFamily · Pending · 143 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,573/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,931
• Tax + insurance: −$931
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$960
• Net cashflow: $-250/mo
• Annual: $-3,000/yr
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.92%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $156,489

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $559k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-250 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $523k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $457k (18.2% below list).
• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($492k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $457k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Robbinsville Public Schools (rural): math 52% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #60 of 472 in NJ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 2% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1825 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $91k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.1% in Windsor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1825 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.