3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,209 sqft ·
Built 1959
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 74 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,582/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$420
Tax + insurance
−$577
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$332
Net cashflow
$253/mo
Annual
$3,035/yr
Cap rate
16.48%
Cash-on-cash
36.40%
DSCR
2.62
1% rule
1.98%
Cash to close
$22,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $253 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $75k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 86/100 on livability (#19 in FL, #429 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D.
Leon (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #33 of 73 in FL (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Bond Elementary School (math 38% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,787 of 2,144 statewide, top 84%, 536 students, 84% FRL); Fairview Middle School (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #310 of 571 statewide, top 56%, 747 students, 58% FRL); James Rickards High School (math 23% / reading 37%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 1,581 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 45% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Leon average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,765 units permitted in Leon County in 2024 (975 in 5+ unit buildings).
Leon County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 16.5% vs local median 4.2% in Tallahassee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-D32Q5G3GJDW869
· Data 15 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29