3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,200 sqft ·
Built 1981
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 21 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,488/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$839
Tax + insurance
−$322
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$313
Net cashflow
$15/mo
Annual
$176/yr
Cap rate
6.40%
Cash-on-cash
0.39%
DSCR
1.02
1% rule
0.93%
Cash to close
$44,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $160k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($176/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (7.0% below list).
It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $149k (7.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#576 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
Vidor ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #422 of 826 in TX (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 241 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.6% in Vidor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-D39X0DAJPK9MJQ
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29