7781 SE Shenandoah Dr

Hobe Sound, FL 33455

$199,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,316 sqft · Built 1982 · Manufactured · Active · 271 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,429/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$151
• HOA: −$120
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $604/mo
• Annual: $7,250/yr
• Cap rate: 9.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.01%
• DSCR: 1.58
• 1% rule: 1.22%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $604 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• It's been on market 271 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#497 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Martin (suburban): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #24 of 73 in FL (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sea Wind Elementary School (math 43% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,288 of 2,144 statewide, top 62%, 501 students, 72% FRL); Murray Middle School (math 45% / reading 43%, grade D, #327 of 571 statewide, top 57%, 616 students, 69% FRL); South Fork High School (math 36% / reading 48%, grade F, #275 of 667 statewide, top 42%, 1,810 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 41% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 283 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 737 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (167 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Martin County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $71k; list at $199k implies a 179% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 3.3% in Hobe Sound — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 271 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.