7781 SE Shenandoah Dr · Hobe Sound, FL 33455

$199,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,316 sqft · Manufactured public records · 271 Days on market

Built 1982 5,000 sqft lot $151/sqft · 9% below area Est $218k · 9% under $120/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Desirable 55+ community where you own the land, and pets are welcomed.This spacious 2 bedroom 2 bath offers spacious living with 1320 sq ft.The open concept living space and separated bedrooms are ideal for family and guests. It's perfect for seasonal or full time living.The primary suite has walk in shower and in house washer and dryer. AMS roof installed 2011, AC 2018, irrigation pump 2023. The community boasts a heated swimming pool, shuffleboard, library, billiards and work out room, as well as seasonal dances, dinners, and clubs. A new Publix is a block away, and restaurants, doctors, and golf nearby. The beach is an easy 10 minute drive, and boat ramps and parks 5 mins away.

Key facts

• Ams roof installed
• Own the land
• Walk in shower

Tags

• OWN THE LAND
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• WALK IN SHOWER
• IN HOUSE WASHER AND DRYER
• AMS ROOF INSTALLED
• HEATED SWIMMING POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $604 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 3.3% in Hobe Sound — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#497 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Martin (suburban): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #24 of 73 in FL (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 284 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 737 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (167 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Martin County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 271 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $71k; list at $199k implies a 179% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 271 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.01%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $218,131
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -8.77%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7850 SE Shenandoah Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,293 (-2%)	2mo	$210,000	$162	91
7955 SE Independence Ave	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,279 (-3%)	1mo	$234,500	$183	85
8031 SE Homestead Ave	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,322 (+0%)	1mo	$169,000	$128	85
7874 SE Saratoga Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,485 (+13%)	1mo	$225,000	$152	73
7843 SE Saratoga Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,505 (+14%)	1mo	$230,000	$153	72
7660 SE Shenandoah Dr SE	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,475 (+12%)	2mo	$236,000	$160	72
7924 SE Saratoga Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,513 (+15%)	2mo	$285,000	$188	67
7829 SE Eagle Ave	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-12%)	2mo	$207,000	$180	66
8199 SE Eagle Ave	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,358 (+3%)	3mo	$260,000	$191	63
7107 SE Seahawk St	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,236 (-6%)	1mo	$215,000	$174	57
7338 SE Redbird Cir	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,224 (-7%)	1mo	$202,000	$165	50
7148 SE Seahawk St	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,180 (-10%)	2mo	$205,000	$174	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.8% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $3,334
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $40,839
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33455

• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 284
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,429 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $822/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$120
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $604

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,665

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $717	-5% $660	+0% $604	+5% $548	+10% $492
Rent	-10% $412	-5% $508	+0% $604	+5% $700	+10% $796
Rate	-1.0pp $704	-0.5pp $655	base $604	+0.5pp $553	+1.0pp $500

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7894 SE Saratoga Dr Hobe Sound, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$2,100	$1.68	24d	1	0.11mi
7568 SE Swan Ave Hobe Sound, FL	2.0	2.0	1052	$2,300	$2.19	24d	1	0.17mi
7462 SE Jamestown Ter Hobe Sound, FL	2.0	2.0	1384	$2,500	$1.81	24d	1	0.25mi
7442 SE Jamestown Ter Hobe Sound, FL	2.0	2.0	1384	$1,800	$1.30	24d	1	0.30mi
7445 SE Independence Ave Hobe Sound, FL	2.0	2.0	1198	$1,900	$1.59	24d	1	0.33mi
8002 SE Skylark Ave Hobe Sound, FL	3.0	2.0	990	$2,000	$2.02	24d	1	0.44mi
7030 SE Ridgeway Ter Hobe Sound, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$2,500	$1.93	24d	1	0.62mi
6845 SE Bunker Hill Dr Hobe Sound, FL	2.0	2.0	1552	$3,500	$2.26	15d	1	0.72mi
6024 SE Crooked Oak Ave Hobe Sound, FL	3.0	2.0	1800	$3,200	$1.78	24d	1	0.72mi
6215 SE Georgetown Pl Hobe Sound, FL	2.0	2.0	1202	$2,600	$2.16	24d	1	0.75mi
8350 SE Sweetbay Dr Hobe Sound, FL	2.0	2.0	1606	$3,500	$2.18	24d	1	0.80mi
7607 SE Hobe Ter Hobe Sound, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$2,200	$1.90	15d	1	0.94mi
8905 SE Sandy Ln Hobe Sound, FL	2.0	2.0	1006	$1,850	$1.84	24d	1	1.15mi
8997 SE Sandy Ln Hobe Sound, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	24d	1	1.23mi
9073 SE Hobe Ridge Ave Hobe Sound, FL	2.0	2.0	1029	$2,100	$2.04	15d	1	1.30mi
8014 SE Carlton St Hobe Sound, FL	3.0	2.0	1463	$3,500	$2.39	24d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $120 · $1,440/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 271 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 268 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 267 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 266 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 265 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 263 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 262 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 260 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 259 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 258 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 257 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 253 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 252 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 251 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 250 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 249 DOM
17. 2026-04-30
    price $199,000 689-char remark

    Show marketing remark (689 chars)

    Desirable 55+ community where you own the land, and pets are welcomed.This spacious 2 bedroom 2 bath offers spacious living with 1320 sq ft.The open concept living space and separated bedrooms are ideal for family and guests. It's perfect for seasonal or full time living.The primary suite has walk in shower and in house washer and dryer. AMS roof installed 2011, AC 2018, irrigation pump 2023. The community boasts a heated swimming pool, shuffleboard, library, billiards and work out room, as well as seasonal dances, dinners, and clubs. A new Publix is a block away, and restaurants, doctors, and golf nearby. The beach is an easy 10 minute drive, and boat ramps and parks 5 mins away.

18. 2026-03-25
    price $205,000 689-char remark

    Show marketing remark (689 chars)

    Desirable 55+ community where you own the land, and pets are welcomed.This spacious 2 bedroom 2 bath offers spacious living with 1320 sq ft.The open concept living space and separated bedrooms are ideal for family and guests. It's perfect for seasonal or full time living.The primary suite has walk in shower and in house washer and dryer. AMS roof installed 2011, AC 2018, irrigation pump 2023. The community boasts a heated swimming pool, shuffleboard, library, billiards and work out room, as well as seasonal dances, dinners, and clubs. A new Publix is a block away, and restaurants, doctors, and golf nearby. The beach is an easy 10 minute drive, and boat ramps and parks 5 mins away.

19. 2026-01-18
    price $219,000 689-char remark

    Show marketing remark (689 chars)

    Desirable 55+ community where you own the land, and pets are welcomed.This spacious 2 bedroom 2 bath offers spacious living with 1320 sq ft.The open concept living space and separated bedrooms are ideal for family and guests. It's perfect for seasonal or full time living.The primary suite has walk in shower and in house washer and dryer. AMS roof installed 2011, AC 2018, irrigation pump 2023. The community boasts a heated swimming pool, shuffleboard, library, billiards and work out room, as well as seasonal dances, dinners, and clubs. A new Publix is a block away, and restaurants, doctors, and golf nearby. The beach is an easy 10 minute drive, and boat ramps and parks 5 mins away.

20. 2025-09-23
    listed $229,000 Active 689-char remark

    Show marketing remark (689 chars)

    Desirable 55+ community where you own the land, and pets are welcomed.This spacious 2 bedroom 2 bath offers spacious living with 1320 sq ft.The open concept living space and separated bedrooms are ideal for family and guests. It's perfect for seasonal or full time living.The primary suite has walk in shower and in house washer and dryer. AMS roof installed 2011, AC 2018, irrigation pump 2023. The community boasts a heated swimming pool, shuffleboard, library, billiards and work out room, as well as seasonal dances, dinners, and clubs. A new Publix is a block away, and restaurants, doctors, and golf nearby. The beach is an easy 10 minute drive, and boat ramps and parks 5 mins away.

21. 2016-01-11
    price $71,400 281-char remark

    Show marketing remark (281 chars)

    Spacious updated 2/2, plus den. Split plan, appliances 2008, metal roof 2005, complete A/C 2005, wood laminate floors (no carpeting), cathedral ceilings, large screened room to utility room, master bath jacuzzi tub & separate shower. Community heatedpool and many activities.

22. 2013-09-22
    historical
23. 2010-05-06
    soldstatus $71,400
24. 2010-04-30
    price $78,000 281-char remark

    Show marketing remark (281 chars)

    Spacious updated 2/2, plus den. Split plan, appliances 2008, metal roof 2005, complete A/C 2005, wood laminate floors (no carpeting), cathedral ceilings, large screened room to utility room, master bath jacuzzi tub & separate shower. Community heatedpool and many activities.

25. 2010-04-30
    soldstatus $71,400 281-char remark

    Show marketing remark (281 chars)

    Spacious updated 2/2, plus den. Split plan, appliances 2008, metal roof 2005, complete A/C 2005, wood laminate floors (no carpeting), cathedral ceilings, large screened room to utility room, master bath jacuzzi tub & separate shower. Community heatedpool and many activities.

26. 2010-02-15
    listed $78,000 281-char remark

    Show marketing remark (281 chars)

    Spacious updated 2/2, plus den. Split plan, appliances 2008, metal roof 2005, complete A/C 2005, wood laminate floors (no carpeting), cathedral ceilings, large screened room to utility room, master bath jacuzzi tub & separate shower. Community heatedpool and many activities.

27. 2007-07-09
    soldstatus $60,000
28. 2007-07-02
    price $68,900
29. 2007-07-02
    soldstatus $60,000
30. 2006-08-08
    listed $60,000
31. 2000-08-02
    soldstatus $54,000
32. 2000-07-28
    soldstatus $54,000
33. 2000-03-21
    listed $58,900
34. 2000-03-18
    historical
35. 1999-03-18
    listed $59,900
36. 1999-03-18
    listed $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $822 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,652 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$830/yr (+$69/mo · 100.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,152
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$822
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,332
• − Management: −$2,332
• − HOA: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $4,294
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,031
• After-tax cash flow: $6,219/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Martin
• NCES district ID: 1201290
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,482
• Composite: 45.1/100
• National rank: #2690
• State rank: #24 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hobe Sound

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #497
• US rank: #8763

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hobe Sound, FL
• County: Martin County · 165,223 people
• City population: 20,018
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 20,018
• Household income: $70,389
• Rent vs Own: 16.0% rent · 84.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 317.0

Population outlook (Martin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 172,383 people
• By 2030: 180,192 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 194,114 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 204,992 · +18.9%
• By 2075: 229,641 · +33.2%
• By 2100: 232,146 · +34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Martin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.1% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+26.9 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -287.05%
• Current HPI: 356.7273
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.80%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+232.2% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $199,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $205,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-01-18 Price Changed $219,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-09-23 Listed $229,000 Beaches MLS
• 2016-01-11 Price Changed $71,400 MCRTC
• 2013-09-22 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2010-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $71,400 Public Records
• 2010-04-30 Sold (MLS) $71,400 MCRTC
• 2010-04-30 Price Changed $78,000 MCRTC
• 2010-02-15 Listed $78,000 MCRTC
• 2007-07-09 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2007-07-02 Sold (MLS) $60,000 MCRTC
• 2007-07-02 Price Changed $68,900 MCRTC
• 2006-08-08 Listed $60,000 MCRTC
• 2000-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records
• 2000-07-28 Sold (MLS) $54,000 MCRTC
• 2000-03-21 Listed $58,900 MCRTC
• 2000-03-18 Listing Removed — MCRTC
• 1999-03-18 Listed $59,900 MCRTC
• 1999-03-18 Listed $59,900 Beaches MLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $822 · -7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.