5 bd · 5.5 ba ·
4,962 sqft ·
Built 2015
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 153 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$30,000/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$9,413
Tax + insurance
−$2,992
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$6,300
Net cashflow
$11,295/mo
Annual
$135,542/yr
Cap rate
13.84%
Cash-on-cash
26.97%
DSCR
2.20
1% rule
1.67%
Cash to close
$502,600
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/5.5-bath single-family listed at $1.79M.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $11k ($136k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($30k rent vs $1.79M).
It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.58M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $1.58M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $12k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $54k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
New Fairfield School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #41 of 153 in CT (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,151 units permitted in Western Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (714 in 5+ unit buildings).
3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $560k; list at $1.79M implies a 221% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $503k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-D49HRX5EF9F3WB
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29