Elston Plan

Richburg, SC 29729

$323,990D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,174 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 173 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,710/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,801
• Tax + insurance: −$572
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$569
• Net cashflow: $-233/mo
• Annual: $-2,791/yr
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.90%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $96,178

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $324k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-233 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $310k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $271k (16.3% below list).
• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($285k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $271k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#182 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Chester 01 (rural): math 23% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #59 of 80 in SC (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lewisville Elementary (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #226 of 597 statewide, top 40%, 510 students, 100% FRL); Lewisville Middle (math 25% / reading 37%, grade F, #128 of 229 statewide, top 58%, 416 students, 100% FRL); Lewisville High (math 44% / reading 87%, grade B, #83 of 196 statewide, top 43%, 416 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 64% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 47% at this address vs 28% district-wide (+19 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Chester 01 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 269 units permitted in Chester County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chester County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.