Elston Plan · Richburg, SC 29729

$323,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,174 sqft · SingleFamily · 173 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

The Elston is a spacious and modern two story home plans featured at Stanton in Richburg, SC, offering 5 modern elevations. The home features four bedrooms, two and a half bathrooms, and two-car garage. The open concept layer connects the home beautifully, where the inviting foyer will lead you into the heart of the home, where the kitchen and large family room meet to create a welcoming atmosphere. The kitchen's stainless steel appliances, ample cabinet space, and a center island make it perfect for cooking and entertaining. The home features a primary suite with a walk-in closet and an en-suite bathroom with dual vanities. The additional three bedrooms provide privacy and comfort and shar

Key facts

• Dual vanities
• Walk-in closet
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CENTER ISLAND
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• DUAL VANITIES
• LOFT SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 2,174
• Financial info: List price: $323,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Elston plan (new construction plan); Located in Richburg, SC
• Construction: New construction (Plan: Elston)
• Exterior features: Plan home on a residential lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open living area (Elston plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $323,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $343,492.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $324k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-233 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $310k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $271k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $271k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#182 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Chester 01 (rural): math 23% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #59 of 80 in SC (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lewisville Elementary (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #226 of 597 statewide, top 40%, 510 students, 100% FRL); Lewisville Middle (math 25% / reading 37%, grade F, #128 of 229 statewide, top 58%, 416 students, 100% FRL); Lewisville High (math 44% / reading 87%, grade B, #83 of 196 statewide, top 43%, 416 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 64% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 47% at this address vs 28% district-wide (+19 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Chester 01 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 269 units permitted in Chester County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Chester County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($285k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $271,035 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.90%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $343,492
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1316 Lily Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5	2,174 (0%)	1mo	$317,000	$146	96
1240 Lavender Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,175 (0%)	0mo	$325,850	$150	92
1319 Lily Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,175 (0%)	2mo	$321,000	$148	91
1235 Lavender Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,175 (0%)	1mo	$315,054	$145	91
1234 Lavender Dr	0.05mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,368 (+9%)	2mo	$329,000	$139	74
699 Lamorak Pl	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,218 (+2%)	3mo	$355,900	$160	63
1513 Doran Ter	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,218 (+2%)	2mo	$355,900	$160	63
1110 Elyan St	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,218 (+2%)	6mo	$349,900	$158	60
642 Lamorak Pl	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,025 (-7%)	10mo	$327,900	$162	47
668 Lamorak Pl	0.64mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,025 (-7%)	10mo	$327,900	$162	45
1520 Doran Ter	0.71mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,025 (-7%)	8mo	$304,900	$151	44
596 Lamorak Pl	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,025 (-7%)	20mo	$327,900	$162	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.99% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $26,484
• Equity at exit: $154,321

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $115,303
• Equity at exit: $237,728

Cash invested: $96,178 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29729

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,710 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,801
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$429 /mo · $5,152/yr
• Insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$569
• Net cashflow: $-233

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,005

Max offer price $309,832

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $5	-5% $-114	+0% $-233	+5% $-351	+10% $-470
Rent	-10% $-447	-5% $-340	+0% $-233	+5% $-126	+10% $-19
Rate	-1.0pp $-60	-0.5pp $-145	base $-233	+0.5pp $-322	+1.0pp $-412

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,873
• Closing costs: $10,305
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $323,990 Active 173 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $323,990 Active 170 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $323,990 Active 169 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $323,990 Active 168 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $323,990 Active 167 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $323,990 Active 165 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $323,990 Active 161 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $323,990 Active 160 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $323,990 Active 159 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $323,990 Active 156 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $323,990 Active 155 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $323,990 Active 154 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $323,990 Active 153 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $323,990 Active 152 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,524
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,241
• − Property taxes: −$5,152
• − Insurance: −$1,717
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,602
• − Management: −$2,602
• − Depreciation: −$9,992
• Taxable loss: −$8,783
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,108
• After-tax cash flow: $-684/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chester 01
• NCES district ID: 4501530
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $34,041
• Composite: 23.39/100
• National rank: #7902
• State rank: #59 of 80 in SC

Livability — Richburg

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #182
• US rank: #15927

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,313

Population outlook (Chester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 30,121 people
• By 2030: 28,700 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 25,784 · -14.4%
• By 2050: 23,001 · -23.6%
• By 2075: 17,770 · -41.0%
• By 2100: 13,584 · -54.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 26% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Danish 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chester

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.8% · R 58.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+10.9 2016: R+4.8 2012: D+10.5 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.99%
• Current HPI: 210.6518
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B