9859 Scottdale Dr

Saint Louis, MO 63136

$39,900B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,047 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 156 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,199/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax + insurance: −$157
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $581/mo
• Annual: $6,976/yr
• Cap rate: 23.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.44%
• DSCR: 3.78
• 1% rule: 3.01%
• Cash to close: $11,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $581 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($276 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Riverview Gardens Sr. High (math 2% / reading 18%, grade F, #501 of 521 statewide, top 97%, 1,331 students, 100% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.2% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 489 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 82% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $40k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 23.8% vs local median 4.8% in Saint Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — Signs of wear and discoloration suggest significant damage and potential water infiltration.
• Major: exterior siding — Peeling and discoloration indicate extensive damage and the need for repainting or replacement.
• Major: landscaping — Overgrown and in need of trimming, reducing curb appeal and potentially causing maintenance issues.
• Major: interior walls/paint — No photos of interior walls or paint are available, but the exterior condition suggests the need for updates.
• Major: systems — No photos of systems are available, but the overall condition suggests they may be outdated or in need of maintenance.
• Major: flooring — No photos of flooring are available, but the condition of the exterior suggests the need for replacement or repair.