300 Frances

Kinston, NC 28501

$82,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,420 sqft · Built 1947 · SingleFamily · Pending · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $746/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$430
• Tax + insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$157
• Net cashflow: $23/mo
• Annual: $280/yr
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.22%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $22,960

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $82k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($280/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $75k (9.0% below list).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $75k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $567 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#640 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Lenoir County Public Schools (rural): math 29% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #147 of 178 in NC (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 148 units permitted in Lenoir County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lenoir County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.8% in Kinston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.