7368 Hollister Ave #27

Goleta, CA 93117

$510,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 500 sqft · Built 2025 · Manufactured · Active · 127 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,548/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,674
• Tax + insurance: −$850
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$955
• Net cashflow: $68/mo
• Annual: $822/yr
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.58%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $142,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $510k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $68 ($822/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $455k (10.8% below list).
• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($449k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $449k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#40 in CA, #1,510 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Goleta Union Elementary (suburban): math 59% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #195 of 1,400 in CA (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ellwood Elementary (341 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $79k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $510k implies a 410% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.9% in Goleta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,548/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($90k/yr) (locally 4402% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.