7368 Hollister Ave #27 · Goleta, CA 93117

$510,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 500 sqft · Manufactured public records · 127 Days on market

Built 2025 871 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This large corner lot located in Ellwood Station at the back of the park is perfect for building your dream home! Sold as-is, this home must be removed & replaced as it is currently un-inhabitable. The lot can fit up to a 925 sqft, 2Bd / 2Ba new home & is your chance to design a custom manufactured home in Goleta. Conveniently located within minutes of Camino Real Shopping Center, Girsh Park, Coronado Butterfly Preserve, Ellwood Mesa Open Space, & many great schools you & your family will make lasting memories for years to come! Concept plot plan & floor plan are available for new manufactured home construction for this lot. These have not yet been approved by park management. Please see images & call listing agent for further information.

Key facts

• Pool
• Built 2025
• Listed 127 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single-story manufactured home; Excellent condition
• Construction: Cement siding; Other foundation; Manufactured home by Champion; Approximately 23'4" wide by 44' long
• Exterior features: Level lot; Near public transit; Mountain views

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in gas range; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Breakfast bar; Dining area
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Laundry room with 220V electrical hook-up; Built-in gas range; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; 220V electrical for appliances

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $510k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $68 ($822/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $455k (10.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $449k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.9% in Goleta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#40 in CA, #1,510 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Goleta Union Elementary (suburban): math 59% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #195 of 1,400 in CA (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ellwood Elementary (341 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,548/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($90k/yr) (locally 4402% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($449k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $79k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $510k implies a 410% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $448,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.58%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-61,681
• Equity at exit: $76,043

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $25,066
• Equity at exit: $44,095

Cash invested: $142,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93117

• Rents YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,548 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,674
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$638 /mo · $7,650/yr
• Insurance: −$212
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$955
• Net cashflow: $68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,461

Max offer price $510,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $127,500
• Closing costs: $15,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7170 Davenport Rd Goleta, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	757	$3,836	$5.06	14d	6	0.37mi
100 Cortona Dr Goleta, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	886	$5,975	$6.74	14d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $510,000 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $510,000 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $510,000 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $510,000 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $510,000 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $510,000 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $510,000 Active 119 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $510,000 Active 118 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $510,000 Active 117 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $510,000 Active 116 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $510,000 Active 113 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $510,000 Active 112 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $510,000 Active 111 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $510,000 Active 110 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $510,000 Active 109 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $510,000 Active 108 DOM
17. 2026-05-20
    price $510,000
18. 2026-03-28
    price $525,000
19. 2026-02-11
    listed $589,000 Active
20. 2026-02-09
    historical $589,000
21. 2024-10-21
    soldstatus $100,000 Closed 776-char remark

    Show marketing remark (776 chars)

    This large corner lot located in Ellwood Station at the back of the park is perfect for building your dream home! Sold as-is, this home must be removed & replaced as it is currently un-inhabitable. The lot can fit up to a 925 sqft, 2Bd / 2Ba new home & is your chance to design a custom manufactured home in Goleta. Conveniently located within minutes of Camino Real Shopping Center, Girsh Park, Coronado Butterfly Preserve, Ellwood Mesa Open Space, & many great schools you & your family will make lasting memories for years to come! Concept plot plan & floor plan are available for new manufactured home construction for this lot. These have not yet been approved by park management. Please see images & call listing agent for further information.

22. 2024-09-28
    historical Contingent 776-char remark

    Show marketing remark (776 chars)

    This large corner lot located in Ellwood Station at the back of the park is perfect for building your dream home! Sold as-is, this home must be removed & replaced as it is currently un-inhabitable. The lot can fit up to a 925 sqft, 2Bd / 2Ba new home & is your chance to design a custom manufactured home in Goleta. Conveniently located within minutes of Camino Real Shopping Center, Girsh Park, Coronado Butterfly Preserve, Ellwood Mesa Open Space, & many great schools you & your family will make lasting memories for years to come! Concept plot plan & floor plan are available for new manufactured home construction for this lot. These have not yet been approved by park management. Please see images & call listing agent for further information.

23. 2024-09-15
    price $165,000 776-char remark

    Show marketing remark (776 chars)

    This large corner lot located in Ellwood Station at the back of the park is perfect for building your dream home! Sold as-is, this home must be removed & replaced as it is currently un-inhabitable. The lot can fit up to a 925 sqft, 2Bd / 2Ba new home & is your chance to design a custom manufactured home in Goleta. Conveniently located within minutes of Camino Real Shopping Center, Girsh Park, Coronado Butterfly Preserve, Ellwood Mesa Open Space, & many great schools you & your family will make lasting memories for years to come! Concept plot plan & floor plan are available for new manufactured home construction for this lot. These have not yet been approved by park management. Please see images & call listing agent for further information.

24. 2024-08-03
    listed $180,000 Active 776-char remark

    Show marketing remark (776 chars)

    This large corner lot located in Ellwood Station at the back of the park is perfect for building your dream home! Sold as-is, this home must be removed & replaced as it is currently un-inhabitable. The lot can fit up to a 925 sqft, 2Bd / 2Ba new home & is your chance to design a custom manufactured home in Goleta. Conveniently located within minutes of Camino Real Shopping Center, Girsh Park, Coronado Butterfly Preserve, Ellwood Mesa Open Space, & many great schools you & your family will make lasting memories for years to come! Concept plot plan & floor plan are available for new manufactured home construction for this lot. These have not yet been approved by park management. Please see images & call listing agent for further information.

25. 2000-05-04
    soldstatus $50,000 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION - BEST IN PARK! PRICE PRICE PRICE - BEST IN GOLETA! FIXER IN NEED OF TLC. NEW COLEMAN FURNACE, PEST WORK DONE. ALL PARK REQUIREMENTS HAVE BEEN MET. BRING OFFER - ESCROW CLOSE ASAP.

26. 2000-04-17
    historical 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION - BEST IN PARK! PRICE PRICE PRICE - BEST IN GOLETA! FIXER IN NEED OF TLC. NEW COLEMAN FURNACE, PEST WORK DONE. ALL PARK REQUIREMENTS HAVE BEEN MET. BRING OFFER - ESCROW CLOSE ASAP.

27. 2000-04-09
    listed $52,000 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION - BEST IN PARK! PRICE PRICE PRICE - BEST IN GOLETA! FIXER IN NEED OF TLC. NEW COLEMAN FURNACE, PEST WORK DONE. ALL PARK REQUIREMENTS HAVE BEEN MET. BRING OFFER - ESCROW CLOSE ASAP.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥83°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,577
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,568
• − Property taxes: −$7,650
• − Insurance: −$2,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,366
• − Management: −$4,366
• − Depreciation: −$14,836
• Taxable loss: −$7,760
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,862
• After-tax cash flow: $2,684/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goleta Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0615510
• Math proficiency: 59% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $70,375
• Composite: 56.2/100
• National rank: #2513
• State rank: #195 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Goleta

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #40
• US rank: #1510

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Goleta, CA
• County: Santa Barbara County · 410,380 people
• City population: 52,934
• Metro: Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA
• Population (ZIP): 52,934
• Household income: $90,037
• Rent vs Own: 61.9% rent · 38.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 4402.0

Population outlook (Santa Barbara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,679 people
• By 2030: 505,323 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 545,783 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 584,263 · +20.5%
• By 2075: 682,586 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 723,188 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 15% Asian 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 19% Chinese 6% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Barbara

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.7) · D 61.8% · R 35.1% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.8pp toward D · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 26.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.7 2020: D+32.1 2016: D+28.2 2012: D+17.1 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1327.27%
• Current HPI: 301.0456
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.49%
• Metro: Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+880.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $510,000 SBMLS
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $525,000 SBMLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $589,000 SBMLS
• 2026-02-09 Coming Soon $589,000 SBMLS
• 2024-10-21 Sold (MLS) $100,000 SBMLS
• 2024-09-28 Contingent — SBMLS
• 2024-09-15 Price Changed $165,000 SBMLS
• 2024-08-03 Listed $180,000 SBMLS
• 2000-05-04 Sold (MLS) $50,000 SBMLS
• 2000-04-17 Listing Removed — SBMLS
• 2000-04-09 Listed $52,000 SBMLS