10406 Wentworth Springs Rd

Georgetown, CA 95634

$250,000D

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,304 sqft · Built 2019 · SingleFamily · Active · 144 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,397/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$172
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $-380/mo
• Annual: $-4,555/yr
• Cap rate: 4.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.51%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.56%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-380 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (26.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (44.1% below list).
• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $140k (44.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#753 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Black Oak Mine Unified (rural): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #278 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Georgetown Elementary (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #856 of 1,571 statewide, top 57%, 251 students, 46% FRL); Golden Sierra Junior Senior High (math 17% / reading 38%, grade F, #780 of 1,170 statewide, top 67%, 488 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 437 units permitted in El Dorado County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• El Dorado County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $118k; list at $250k implies a 111% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.1% in Georgetown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.