9563 15th Bay St

Norfolk, VA 23518

$775,000C-

12 bd · 8.0 ba · 4,532 sqft · Built 1970 · MultiFamily · Active · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,698/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,064
• Tax + insurance: −$1,378
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,617
• Net cashflow: $639/mo
• Annual: $7,667/yr
• Cap rate: 7.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.89%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $217,000

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $775k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $639 ($8k/yr) — positive. Per door: $160/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $770k (0.7% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $770k (0.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $23k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#43 in VA, #1,026 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Norfolk City Public School District (urban): math 27% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #118 of 131 in VA (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Little Creek Elementary (math 20% / reading 49%, grade F, #966 of 1,108 statewide, top 89%, 631 students, 97% FRL); Azalea Gardens Middle (math 21% / reading 54%, grade F, #315 of 342 statewide, top 93%, 848 students, 84% FRL); Lake Taylor High (math 38% / reading 72%, grade C, #279 of 319 statewide, top 88%, 1,030 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 59% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 438 units permitted in Norfolk city in 2024 (273 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $336k; list at $775k implies a 131% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.0% in Norfolk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $7,698/mo this rent would consume 119% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) (locally 1143% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.