9563 15th Bay St · Norfolk, VA 23518

$775,000

12 bd · 8.0 ba · 4,532 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1970

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

OFFERS being received through 12pm Thursday June 25th. Please send your highest and best. ALL occupied UNIT TOURS scheduled for Tuesday 6/23 3-6 PM and Wednesday 6/24 12-3 PM. EAST BEACH 4 PLEX- updated-Come check out these 3-bedroom, 2 bath apartments located just blocks from the beach in Norfolk! Ceramic tile in the kitchen, carpet in the bedrooms, and luxury vinyl tile in the living area. Good sized bedrooms with large closets! Each unit has -Washer/dryer hookup in a huge utility room. Each unit has Separate water meters. Each unit and Primary ensuite bed/bath, unit has it's own small front porch area and dedicated parking space. Newer roof, hot water, heater and appliances. NEW Electric

Key facts

• Small front porch
• Washer dryer hookup
• Primary ensuite

Tags

• CERAMIC TILE
• LUXURY VINYL TILE
• WASHER DRYER HOOKUP
• PRIMARY ENSUITE
• SMALL FRONT PORCH
• DEDICATED PARKING SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Ownership type: Simple
• Financial info: Units are leased on yearly terms; Lease expirations vary by unit: Unit 1 (2/28/27), Unit 2 (4/30/27), Unit 3 (6/30/27), Unit 4 (lease term in place); Current monthly rents by unit: Unit 1 $1,600; Unit 2 $1,687; Unit 3 $1,600; Unit 4 $1,700

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned/reserved parking; Street parking; Two parking spaces per unit
• Utilities: Separate meters for all units (electric and water); City/County water; City/County sewer; Electric water heaters
• Home design: Quadruplex; Over/Under style
• Construction: Crawl foundation; Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Brick siding; Wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Each unit has a full kitchen; Microwave; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Each unit has 3 bedrooms (Unit 1, Unit 2, Unit 3, Unit 4); First-floor master bedroom in Units 1 and 2
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic
• Bathrooms: Each unit has 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating in each unit; Window/wall air conditioning in each unit
• Interior features: Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Low pile carpet (accessibility)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup in each unit; Dryer hookup in each unit; 220V electrical for laundry appliances

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $775k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $639 ($8k/yr) — positive. Per door: $160/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $770k (0.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $770k (0.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.0% in Norfolk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#43 in VA, #1,026 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Norfolk City Public School District (urban): math 27% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #118 of 131 in VA (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Little Creek Elementary (math 20% / reading 49%, grade F, #966 of 1,108 statewide, top 89%, 631 students, 97% FRL); Azalea Gardens Middle (math 21% / reading 54%, grade F, #315 of 342 statewide, top 93%, 848 students, 84% FRL); Lake Taylor High (math 38% / reading 72%, grade C, #279 of 319 statewide, top 88%, 1,030 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 59% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 438 units permitted in Norfolk city in 2024 (273 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,698/mo this rent would consume 119% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) (locally 1143% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $23k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $336k; list at $775k implies a 131% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $769,800 (0.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.89%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-84,177
• Equity at exit: $115,555

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-17,981
• Equity at exit: $67,008

Cash invested: $217,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23518

• Home prices YoY: -16.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 33.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,698 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,064
• Tax from tax record: −$629 /mo · $7,546/yr
• Insurance: −$323
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,617
• Net cashflow: $639

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,889

Max offer price $775,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,078	-5% $858	+0% $639	+5% $420	+10% $200
Rent	-10% $31	-5% $335	+0% $639	+5% $943	+10% $1,247
Rate	-1.0pp $1,029	-0.5pp $836	base $639	+0.5pp $438	+1.0pp $234

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	3	2	$7,700
Total (4 units)			$7,698

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $193,750
• Closing costs: $23,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $775,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $775,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,546 · $629/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,546 · $629/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $92,376
• − Mortgage interest: −$43,412
• − Property taxes: −$7,546
• − Insurance: −$8,994
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,390
• − Management: −$7,390
• − Depreciation: −$22,545
• Taxable loss: −$4,901
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,176
• After-tax cash flow: $8,844/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Norfolk City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102670
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -44.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $44,358
• Composite: 35.08/100
• National rank: #5026
• State rank: #118 of 131 in VA

Livability — Norfolk

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #1026

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Norfolk, VA
• County: Norfolk City · 214,042 people
• City population: 214,042
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 29,746
• Household income: $77,594
• Rent vs Own: 41.0% rent · 59.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1143.0

Population outlook (Norfolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 249,032 people
• By 2030: 252,347 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 253,644 · +1.9%
• By 2050: 251,913 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 245,281 · -1.5%
• By 2100: 219,548 · -11.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Norfolk

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+41.5) · D 70.0% · R 28.5% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 43.0pp · 2024: 41.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+41.5 2020: D+45.6 2016: D+42.0 2012: D+44.0 2008: D+43.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.26%
• Current HPI: 296.2161
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.07%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+811.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $775,000 REINMLS
• 2015-03-02 Sold (Public Records) $336,000 Public Records
• 2014-06-27 Price Changed $399,000 REINMLS
• 1993-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,546 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.