4428 Dorsey Dr

Cherryvale, SC 29154

$18,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 560 sqft · Built 1992 · Other · Active · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,339/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$94
• Tax + insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $948/mo
• Annual: $11,373/yr
• Cap rate: 69.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 225.65%
• DSCR: 11.04
• 1% rule: 7.44%
• Cash to close: $5,040

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $18k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $948 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $18k).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($18k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $18k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $124 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $540 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#346 in SC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing D, schools F, amenities F.
• Sumter 01 (urban): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #64 of 80 in SC (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 229 active listings in the ZIP; 386 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sumter County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.