4790 Goodar Rd

Lupton, MI 48761

$95,000D+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 640 sqft · Built 1935 · SingleFamily · Pending · 80 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $781/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax + insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$164
• Net cashflow: $26/mo
• Annual: $306/yr
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.15%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $26,600

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $26 ($306/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $78k (17.8% below list).
• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $78k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $514 appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#656 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• West Branch-Rose City Area Schools (rural): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #306 of 540 in MI (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rose City School (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #606 of 1,397 statewide, top 48%, 115 students, 77% FRL); Surline Middle School (math 21% / reading 44%, grade F, #314 of 493 statewide, top 64%, 582 students, 70% FRL); Ogemaw Heights High School (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #214 of 713 statewide, top 36%, 573 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 53% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 57 units permitted in Ogemaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ogemaw County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.