4790 Goodar Rd · Lupton, MI 48761

$95,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 640 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1935 0.27 ac lot $148/sqft · 115% above area ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to peace and quiet in this charming 1-bedroom, 1-bath cottage tucked near the Huron National Forest. Perfectly situated for outdoor lovers, it's just minutes from riding trails, countless inland lakes, and the famed AuSable River. Whether you're fishing, kayaking, or simply unwinding, this location has it all. The cozy interior is warm and welcoming, ideal for weekend retreats or a simple, year-round lifestyle. Outside, a separate building features a 6-person hot tub with two door walls, so you can soak in the serenity while enjoying views of the surrounding woods. Would make a great investment for short term rental purposes with all the area has to offer. Private, peaceful, and close to everything the North has to offer—this is the getaway you've been waiting for. Some photos have been digitally altered to show potential.

Key facts

• Riding trails
• 6 person hot tub
• Inland lakes

Tags

• HURON NATIONAL FOREST
• RIDING TRAILS
• INLAND LAKES
• AUSABLE RIVER
• 6 PERSON HOT TUB
• SURROUNDING WOODS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $26 ($306/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $78k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $78k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#656 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• West Branch-Rose City Area Schools (rural): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #306 of 540 in MI (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rose City School (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #606 of 1,397 statewide, top 48%, 115 students, 77% FRL); Surline Middle School (math 21% / reading 44%, grade F, #314 of 493 statewide, top 64%, 582 students, 70% FRL); Ogemaw Heights High School (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #214 of 713 statewide, top 36%, 573 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 53% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 57 units permitted in Ogemaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $514 appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Ogemaw County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,102 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.15%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $58,024
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: 63.73%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $1,260
• Equity at exit: $30,184

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $18,362
• Equity at exit: $38,427

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48761

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $781 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $645/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$164
• Net cashflow: $26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $749

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $79	-5% $52	+0% $26	+5% $-1	+10% $-28
Rent	-10% $-36	-5% $-5	+0% $26	+5% $56	+10% $87
Rate	-1.0pp $73	-0.5pp $50	base $26	+0.5pp $1	+1.0pp $-24

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-29
   price $95,000 860-char remark

   Show marketing remark (842 chars)

   Escape to peace and quiet in this charming 1-bedroom, 1-bath cottage tucked near the Huron National Forest. Perfectly situated for outdoor lovers, it's just minutes from riding trails, countless inland lakes, and the famed AuSable River. Whether you're fishing, kayaking, or simply unwinding, this location has it all. The cozy interior is warm and welcoming, ideal for weekend retreats or a simple, year-round lifestyle. Outside, a separate building features a 6-person hot tub with two door walls, so you can soak in the serenity while enjoying views of the surrounding woods. Would make a great investment for short term rental purposes with all the area has to offer. Private, peaceful, and close to everything the North has to offer-this is the getaway you've been waiting for. Some photos have been digitally altered to show potential.

2. 2026-04-29
   price $95,000 842-char remark

   Show marketing remark (842 chars)

   Escape to peace and quiet in this charming 1-bedroom, 1-bath cottage tucked near the Huron National Forest. Perfectly situated for outdoor lovers, it's just minutes from riding trails, countless inland lakes, and the famed AuSable River. Whether you're fishing, kayaking, or simply unwinding, this location has it all. The cozy interior is warm and welcoming, ideal for weekend retreats or a simple, year-round lifestyle. Outside, a separate building features a 6-person hot tub with two door walls, so you can soak in the serenity while enjoying views of the surrounding woods. Would make a great investment for short term rental purposes with all the area has to offer. Private, peaceful, and close to everything the North has to offer-this is the getaway you've been waiting for. Some photos have been digitally altered to show potential.

3. 2026-03-04
   listed $99,000 Active 860-char remark

   Show marketing remark (842 chars)

   Escape to peace and quiet in this charming 1-bedroom, 1-bath cottage tucked near the Huron National Forest. Perfectly situated for outdoor lovers, it's just minutes from riding trails, countless inland lakes, and the famed AuSable River. Whether you're fishing, kayaking, or simply unwinding, this location has it all. The cozy interior is warm and welcoming, ideal for weekend retreats or a simple, year-round lifestyle. Outside, a separate building features a 6-person hot tub with two door walls, so you can soak in the serenity while enjoying views of the surrounding woods. Would make a great investment for short term rental purposes with all the area has to offer. Private, peaceful, and close to everything the North has to offer-this is the getaway you've been waiting for. Some photos have been digitally altered to show potential.

4. 2026-03-04
   listed $99,000 Active 842-char remark

   Show marketing remark (842 chars)

   Escape to peace and quiet in this charming 1-bedroom, 1-bath cottage tucked near the Huron National Forest. Perfectly situated for outdoor lovers, it's just minutes from riding trails, countless inland lakes, and the famed AuSable River. Whether you're fishing, kayaking, or simply unwinding, this location has it all. The cozy interior is warm and welcoming, ideal for weekend retreats or a simple, year-round lifestyle. Outside, a separate building features a 6-person hot tub with two door walls, so you can soak in the serenity while enjoying views of the surrounding woods. Would make a great investment for short term rental purposes with all the area has to offer. Private, peaceful, and close to everything the North has to offer-this is the getaway you've been waiting for. Some photos have been digitally altered to show potential.

5. 2025-12-20
   historical
6. 2025-12-20
   historical
7. 2025-10-20
   price $100,000
8. 2025-10-20
   price $100,000
9. 2025-07-26
   price $110,000
10. 2025-07-26
    price $110,000
11. 2025-07-04
    price $115,000
12. 2025-07-03
    price $115,000
13. 2025-06-20
    listed $120,000 Active
14. 2025-06-20
    listed $120,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $645 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,054 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: +$409/yr (+$34/mo · 63.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,372
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$645
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$750
• − Management: −$750
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable loss: −$1,332
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$320
• After-tax cash flow: $626/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Branch-Rose City Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2635850
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,145
• Composite: 29.15/100
• National rank: #6580
• State rank: #306 of 540 in MI

Livability — Lupton

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #656
• US rank: #22478

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 804

Population outlook (Ogemaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,373 people
• By 2030: 18,348 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 16,176 · -16.5%
• By 2050: 14,294 · -26.2%
• By 2075: 11,280 · -41.8%
• By 2100: 8,942 · -53.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 14% Romanian 13% Slovak 5%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ogemaw

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.0) · D 28.4% · R 70.4% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.4pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.0 2020: R+40.1 2016: R+36.6 2012: R+6.2 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.54%
• Current HPI: 176.0313
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-20.8% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $95,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $95,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-04 Listed $99,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-04 Listed $99,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-20 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-12-20 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-20 Price Changed $100,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-10-20 Price Changed $100,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-07-26 Price Changed $110,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-07-26 Price Changed $110,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-07-04 Price Changed $115,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-07-03 Price Changed $115,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-06-20 Listed $120,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-06-20 Listed $120,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $645 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.