16909 Paxton Ave

South Holland, IL 60473

$334,900D

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,510 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Pending · 168 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,099/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,756
• Tax + insurance: −$568
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$651
• Net cashflow: $124/mo
• Annual: $1,487/yr
• Cap rate: 6.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.59%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $93,772

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $335k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $124 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $310k (7.5% below list).
• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $295k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#167 in IL, #3,071 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, schools D+.
• Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $106k; list at $335k implies a 214% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.