16909 Paxton Ave · South Holland, IL 60473

$334,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,510 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 168 Days on market

Built 1979 8,760 sqft lot Est $334k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This pristine, 2 story home, located on a large corner lot, is nestled in a sidewalk community that has been thoughtfully maintained by the original owners. Newer roof (2024) with gutter guards help welcome guests onto the large covered porch. As you step inside the double door entrance, you'll be greeted by an inviting foyer with a large coat closet that sets the tone for the entire home. With Andersen windows and doors throughout the entire home, there is an abundance of natural light. The large kitchen, with pantry and closet, boasts wood cabinetry and exceptional counter space with a full sized eat-in dining area. Dishwasher, stove/oven, vent fan and microwave are all included! This kit

Key facts

• Lots of cabinets
• Large foyer
• Separate dining room

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• ATTACHED 3 CAR GARAGE
• LARGE FOYER
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• LOTS OF CABINETS
• 2 PANTRIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $335k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $124 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $310k (7.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $295k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#167 in IL, #3,071 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, schools D+.
• Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $106k; list at $335k implies a 214% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $294,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.59%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $333,830
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16909 Paxton Ave	0.00mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,510 (0%)	2mo	$325,000	$129	89
16747 Paxton Ave	0.16mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,412 (-4%)	3mo	$240,000	$100	76
16836 Paxton Ave	0.06mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,700 (+8%)	9mo	$275,000	$102	70
1937 E 172nd St	0.33mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,522 (+0%)	9mo	$424,000	$168	69
2024 E 171st Ct	0.17mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,728 (+9%)	6mo	$385,000	$141	65
16701 Clyde Ave	0.29mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,386 (-5%)	8mo	$350,000	$147	64
16822 Merrill Ave	0.12mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,228 (-11%)	7mo	$269,000	$121	63
16907 Merrill Ave	0.05mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,136 (-15%)	13mo	$285,000	$133	53
17201 Bennett Ave	0.50mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,350 (-6%)	5mo	$345,000	$147	52
16814 Clyde Ave	0.17mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,306 (-8%)	21mo	$354,000	$154	52
1911 E 173rd Pl	0.58mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,601 (+4%)	13mo	$300,000	$115	49
17325 Royal Ct	0.57mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,765 (+10%)	2mo	$265,000	$96	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-46,323
• Equity at exit: $49,935

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-29,961
• Equity at exit: $28,956

Cash invested: $93,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60473

• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,099 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,756
• Tax from tax record: −$428 /mo · $5,138/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$651
• Net cashflow: $124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,942

Max offer price $334,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $313	-5% $219	+0% $124	+5% $29	+10% $-66
Rent	-10% $-121	-5% $2	+0% $124	+5% $246	+10% $369
Rate	-1.0pp $293	-0.5pp $209	base $124	+0.5pp $37	+1.0pp $-51

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,725
• Closing costs: $10,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-03-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-17
   price $334,900
3. 2025-11-02
   price $344,900
4. 2025-10-14
   price $349,900
5. 2025-10-01
   price $354,900
6. 2025-09-24
   listed $359,900 Active
7. 1980-06-18
   soldstatus $106,500
8. 1980-02-01
   soldstatus $106,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,138 · $428/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,370 · $531/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,232/yr (+$103/mo · 24.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,183
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,760
• − Property taxes: −$5,138
• − Insurance: −$1,674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,975
• − Management: −$2,975
• − Depreciation: −$9,743
• Taxable loss: −$4,081
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$979
• After-tax cash flow: $2,466/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thornton Twp Hsd 205
• NCES district ID: 1738970
• Math proficiency: 7% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 8% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,392
• Composite: 6.92/100
• National rank: #9976
• State rank: #594 of 620 in IL

Livability — South Holland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #3071

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Holland, IL
• City population: 21,407
• Population (ZIP): 21,407

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 75% White 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.36%
• Current HPI: 201.2479
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+214.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $334,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-02 Price Changed $344,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $349,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $354,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-24 Listed $359,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1980-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $106,500 Public Records
• 1980-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $106,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2023): $5,138 · -24.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.